The report «Cancer figures in Spain»presented this Tuesday by the SEOM and the Spanish Network of Cancer Registries (Redecan) in the run-up to World Cancer Day, which is celebrated on Friday, forecasts that in 2040 the incidence will reach 340,000 cases, which represents an increase 21.74% of those planned for this year.
The most frequently diagnosed cancers in 2022 will be those of the colon and rectum (43,370), breast (34,750), lung (30,948), prostate (30,884) and urinary bladder (22,295) and, far behind, non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas (9,514), pancreas (9,252), kidney (8,078), oral cavity and pharynx (7,779), stomach (6,913), uterine body (6,773) and liver (6,604).
And they will appear more in men: 160,066 tumors will occur in them: above all, prostate, with 30,884, colon and rectum (26,862), lung (22,316) and urinary bladder (17,992) – compared to 120,035 in women, who will suffer plus those of the breast (34,750) and those of the colon and rectum (16,508).
However, the report once again puts the emphasis on lung cancer in women: with an estimated 8,632 cases, it remains the third most incident tumor due to the increase in tobacco consumption since the 1970s.
Diagnostic deficit in 2020
In total, 280,101 are expected to be new cancer cases, compared to the 276,239 calculated in 2021, although these estimates are made without taking into account the impact of the pandemic, because they are made from projections made with data from years previous ones, and already those of 2020, when the covid crisis broke out, “very probably did not correspond to what was finally reality.”
For example, and although they have now recovered “at full capacity”, as pointed out at a press conference by the President of Redecan, Jaume Galceráncancer screening programs were affected, so the number of colorectal and breast cancers finally diagnosed in 2020 were lower than expected.
It is also unclear how the coronavirus has affected the number of diagnoses in 2021 and how it will affect 2022. In any case, he has guaranteed that all this “may alter the results a little, but not too much.”
What they do have calculated is the diagnostic deficit that the first year brought with it: between 10% and 20% fewer were detected than “those who would have been diagnosed on a regular basis”, but the final figure will not be known until Not all records are ready.
“It was complicated in the first wave from March to June 2020, but then we have recovered,” the President of the SEOM, Enriqueta Felipwhich has emphasized the importance of prevention.
To measure the ravages of covid on cancer patients, the SEOM has proposed the working group created with the Spanish Association Against Cancer (AECC), the Spanish Society of Pathological Anatomy (SEAP), the Spanish Society of Oncology Nursing (SEEO) , the Spanish Society of Hematology and Hemotherapy (SEHH) and the Spanish Society of Radiation Oncology (SEOR) carry out a new study with multi-hospital data that gives an idea of the magnitude.
risk factors
The age It is one of the main risk factors associated with this disease, especially from the age of 50: 166,127 cases will be detected in people over 65 years of age, 98,033 in people between 45 and 64, and 15,940 in those under that age group.
From birth to age 80, mens they have a risk of developing cancer of 40.9% and women of 27.6%. At 85 years of age, these values are 48.6% and 32.2% in the women.
But also the tobacco, alcohol -the combination of these two factors triggers by 30 the risk of developing oral, oropharyngeal or esophageal carcinoma-, sedentary lifestyle and diet inadequate are: one in three cancer deaths in Europe are due to these preventable factors.
Cancer, the second leading cause of death from disease
Despite covid, cancer was the second cause of death in 2020: it was behind 22.8% of deaths, only surpassed by diseases of the circulatory system (24.3%). The most deadly, those of the lung, pancreas, breast and prostate.
All in all, it is estimated that mortality will increase from more than 113,000 cases in 2020 to more than 160,000 in 2040, although the figure has been falling in recent decades, reflecting the improvement in patient survival.
In fact, it is estimated that it has doubled in the last 40 years and it is likely that, albeit slowly, it will continue to increase in the coming years due to the development and application of new therapies such as early diagnosis programs.
The study analyzes the five-year net survival in the period 2008-2013; in men, age-standardized net survival was 90% for prostate and testicular cancers, and 86% for thyroid cancers, but 7% for pancreas, 12% for lung, 13% for esophagus and 18% in liver.
Meanwhile, in women, thyroid cancer had a net survival of 93%, cutaneous melanoma 89% and breast cancer 86%. Pancreas was 10%, liver and esophagus 16% and lung 18%.
The imprint of Precision Medicine
“In recent years we have experienced a true revolution in oncology at the hands of Precision Medicine thanks to an “increasingly deeper knowledge of cancer biology, through the identification of biomarkers”, which allow “subdividing and classifying the tumours, as well as selecting the most effective and safest treatments for patients”, explained the president of SEOMEnriqueta Felipe.
The Ministry of Health is already working together with the communities, scientific societies and the Carlos III Health Institute to specify and update the portfolio of services in the area of genetics to adapt it to the current and future challenges of precision medicine and guarantee more homogeneous access.
The group of experts is preparing the corresponding catalog, including the area of oncological biomarkers, “very good” news for the SEOM, because “the provision of biomarkers in the National Health System in an equitable manner is essential in view of the increase in cancer cases.”
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