China and Russia Vowed Closer Ties, Ukraine is Challenging That

Seoul, South Korea — 

Russia’s decision to send troops into two separatist enclaves in eastern Ukraine is forcing a difficult choice for China, which has aligned itself closer with Moscow but could face blowback if it is seen as supporting the unilateral redrawing of international borders, analysts say.

The government of Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday formally recognized the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and ordered what it called “peacekeepers” into the contested regions. The moves followed a fiery speech in which Putin questioned Ukraine’s very statehood, further raising concern he is planning a large-scale invasion.

The situation is tricky for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who earlier this month declared a “no limits” partnership with Russia following a meeting with Putin. The meeting was the latest evidence Russia and China have drawn closer as both attempt to counter U.S. global influence.

But the Ukraine issue is already testing how far that enhanced partnership can go. Analysts say China is likely concerned about foreign turmoil that could impact its economy, especially during a sensitive year of domestic political maneuvering meant to shape what is expected to be Xi’s indefinite rule.

China, which has long insisted it opposes interference in other countries’ internal affairs, may also be worried about its international reputation taking a hit.

On Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Munich Security Conference that the sovereignty of all nations should be respected. “Ukraine is no exception,” he added.

In recent weeks, China has called for restraint on all sides in Ukraine, as well as a return to the Minsk Agreements, which were meant to restore peace following a flare-up of violence along the Russia-Ukraine border in 2014.

But by recognizing the two disputed Ukrainian territories, Putin “obliterated” the Minsk Agreements, in the process essentially destroying a key Chinese talking point, says Derek Grossman, a senior analyst who focuses on Asia at the RAND Corporation, a California-based global policy research organization. “All of that is completely out the window if Russia does invade,” Grossman told VOA.

Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Vasily Nebenzya (C) fist bumps Ambassador Zhang Jun, Permanent Representative of China, as US ambassador Thomas-Greenfield and Permanent Representative of Norway Mona Juul look on, Feb. 21, 2022.

Speaking late Monday at an emergency meeting on Ukraine at the United Nations Security Council, China’s U.N. envoy Zhang Jun issued only brief remarks, calling for all sides to “exercise restraint.” He did not mention the Minsk Agreements.

The speech “reads like a placeholder,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “China hasn’t decided what its policy response should be yet,” she concluded.

In some ways, the situation mirrors that of 2014, when Russia seized the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine. At the time, China also responded by insisting that Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty should be respected but that the West should consider Russia’s “legitimate security concerns.”

Since then, however, geopolitics has shifted. Not only have U.S.-China ties worsened, China has gotten stronger economically and militarily and is now bolder about challenging U.S. power.

But Ryan Hass, a China scholar at the U.S.-based Brookings Institution, cautioned against assuming China has already chosen to support Russia on the Ukraine issue.

“If there is war in Ukraine, and if China actively attempts to shield Russia from global condemnation, then China may spur a self-harming solidification of blocs” in which China is aligned with “the weakest other major power,” he tweeted.

China may also be reluctant to damage its diplomatic and economic relationship with Europe, which is strongly opposed to a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Beijing needs to be helped toward realizing that going all-in on the China-Russia relationship carries more risks than benefits,” Hass said.

Other analysts are more pessimistic. Russia and China may be determined to form a relationship that can overturn large swaths of U.S. dominance, argued Robert Kagan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, in an editorial in The Washington Post.

“It is really their shared desire to disrupt the international order that creates a common interest,” he said.

US, EU Pledge Closer Energy Cooperation amid Russian Threats

Washington — 

At their first meeting in four years, officials of the U.S.-European Union Energy Council confronted an urgent, short-term priority – bolstering natural gas supplies amid a Russian threat to invade Ukraine – and a longer-term concern: mitigating climate change.

“We’re coordinating with our allies and partners, with the energy sector stakeholders, including on how best to share energy reserves in the event that Russia turns off the spigot or initiates a conflict that disrupts the flow of gas through Ukraine,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken following Monday’s meeting in Washington.

Moscow has threatened to halt the flow of gas to Europe if economic sanctions are imposed as a result of any further Russian aggression against Ukraine.

“This crisis has been pushing trans-Atlantic unity,” according to Josep Borrell, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy.

“In the medium term, there is the climate neutrality,” explained Borrell, who is also the vice president of the European Commission. “In the short term, it’s security of supplies of gas. Both things go together.”

Europe is likely to rely more on the United States for its gas supplies as a result of the crisis. President Joe Biden has pledged to help Europe find additional liquified natural gas from sources in the United States and other countries if Russia-Ukraine tensions cause disruptions.

“We think we can make up a significant portion of it that would be lost,” Biden said at a White House news conference alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday afternoon.

That is seen by some environmentalists as counter-productive to achieving reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, something the United States and the European Union have pledged to work together to accomplish.

European officials “are not doing everything they need to be to get their addiction to gas ramped down as fast as possible. They’re really convinced that they need gas, and they see the U.S. as a supplier for that,” Aki Kachi, senior policy analyst at NewClimate Institute in Germany, told VOA News. “Generally, in both the EU and the U.S., there’s a lack of understanding about the climate impacts of gas.”

“Germany has decided to phase out the use of oil and gas very soon and by 2045 Germany will have a carbon-neutral economy as one of the strongest economies of the world,” Scholz told reporters at the White House. “It’ll probably be the biggest industrial modernization project in Germany in 100 years.”

The trans-Atlantic partnership has pledged to increase collaboration on reducing emissions from fossil fuels and expanding use of energy from the sun, wind, batteries and hydrogen.

“As we face geopolitical tensions and the challenge of climate change, we need more, not less, trans-Atlantic cooperation,” Kadri Simson, the European Commission’s energy commissioner, said at the meeting’s opening.

European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson speaks during a meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, and European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell Fontelles, at th

At the start of Monday’s discussion, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the goals set out in Washington and Brussels have significant geo-political ramifications at a time when energy prices have “gone through the roof” on both sides of the Atlantic amid the threats from Russia.

“This is not just an energy and climate issue,” Granholm told the meeting. “It also is potentially the greatest peace plan that ever existed, to be able to build out energy independence from clean energy.”

Together, the economies of the U.S. and the EU represent about 45% of the world’s economic output, and an even smaller percentage of global carbon dioxide emissions. That means for the world to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, the legally binding international treaty on climate change, other major emitters will need to make good on their ambitious pledges.

“If only the EU and the U.S. are taking action, it wouldn’t be enough,” Kachi noted. “But it’s not really the case because China and India and other countries are also major investors in renewables.”

Iran, Russia Tout Closer Ties Amid Tensions With Europe, US

Iran’s president visited Russia this week on a visit Iranian officials called a “turning point” in their relations, as officials also announced a planned joint naval exercise that includes China for later this week.

The visit by President Ebrahim Raisi to Moscow comes amid rising tensions between Russia and Western countries over Moscow’s troop buildup on Ukraine’s border, broadly seen as preparation for a possible invasion. Russia claims it has no plans to invade.

In a speech Thursday before Russia’s parliament, the Duma, Raisi accused NATO of expanding into “various geographical areas with new coverings that threaten the common interests of independent states.”

Raisi and Russian President Vladimir Putin met at the Kremlin on Wednesday, but despite the red-carpet welcome, there were no substantial country-to-country agreements announced.

“The significance of the trip at the moment is still mostly symbolic,” Alex Vatanka, director of the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program, told VOA. “There’s talk of closer military cooperation. There’s talk of strategic cooperation in the energy sector. We’ve heard this before. Time will show if any tangible deals can be reached.”

In his only tweet about Raisi’s trip to Russia, Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, was cryptic. “The presidents of the two countries agreed on a long-term roadmap,” he wrote, without clarifying what the map was about or whether an agreement was signed.

During Raisi’s travels, Iranian state-run media reported planned joint naval exercises among Iranian, Russian and Chinese forces in the north of the Indian Ocean on Friday. Iran’s armed forces and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will take part in the drills, an Iranian military official said.

Iran became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in September 2021, thanks to strong Russian support.

In this handout photo released by the Russian Federation Press Service, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi gestures after delivering his speech at the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, in Moscow, Jan. 20, 2022.

Uncertainty ahead of nuclear talks

The Iranian president also gave assurances in remarks before Russian officials that his country was not seeking nuclear arms. “We are not looking for a nuclear weapon, and such weapons have no place in our defense strategy,” Raisi told Russian lawmakers.

The United States and its allies accuse Iran of trying to make nuclear weapons and using terrorism to destabilize countries in the Middle East – charges Tehran rejects.

Iranian diplomats are in talks with U.S. and European counterparts to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, which former President Donald Trump pulled out of, calling it “one-sided and unacceptable.”

The talks are at a “decisive moment,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday. The top U.S. diplomat warned that Washington and its allies might change tactics if a deal isn’t reached in the coming weeks.

Speaking in Vienna on Thursday alongside Blinken, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock indicated that European nations had sought to ensure China and Russia also maintained pressure on Iran.

In Moscow, the Iranian president said his country was “serious about reaching an agreement if the other parties are serious about lifting the sanctions effectively and operationally.”

In this photo released by the Russian Federation Press Service, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, left, and Russian State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin talk to each other during their meeting in Moscow, Jan. 20, 2022.

Opportunistic alliance?

Russia and Iran both have critical disagreements with the U.S. on issues ranging from Iran’s nuclear program and alleged backing of terrorist groups in the Middle East to Russia’s security and strategic threats to NATO. The two countries have also cooperated in some areas, such as countering U.S. interests in Syria and Afghanistan.

But on other topics, divides include Iran’s existential threats to Israel and Russia’s official objection to Iran’s proliferation of nuclear arms.

“This is not a matter of two nations which agree on politics or ideology to, somehow, form an alliance. It is basically an opportunistic alliance where both countries would really ignore their differences because of their hostility to the United States,” Anthony Cordesman, an expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told VOA.

It’s unclear to what extent Putin will go with Iran and against the West, experts say.

With the U.S. departure from Afghanistan, which shares a long border with Iran and three Central Asian republics, analysts say Moscow and Tehran will find a common agenda in countering drugs, refugees and terrorist groups like the Islamic State’s Khorasan branch.

“Russia and Iran will probably blame everything that will go wrong in Afghanistan on the U.S. policies. But the reality is now Afghanistan is on its own, and neighboring states like Russia and Iran have every reason to shape the internal dynamics of Afghanistan in a way that their actual interests are not jeopardized,” said Vatanka of the Middle East Institute.

Before their seizure of power in Afghanistan, the Taliban signed an agreement with the U.S. that requires them to deny territory and support to any group that poses threats to the U.S. security and interests.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and RFE/RL.