US Indo-Pacific Partners' Approach to Ukraine Fractured

WHITE HOUSE — 

While U.S. President Joe Biden has played a key role in galvanizing Western nations’ condemnation of Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine, his administration is finding it harder to build a global coalition in the Indo-Pacific to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Key regional partners such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have announced significant financial sanctions and export controls against Moscow, but others have resisted Western pressure to even condemn the invasion.

Most notable among these is India. While it is a strong U.S. partner in containing China in the Indo-Pacific, New Delhi relies heavily on Russian defense purchases and abstained from the United Nations General Assembly resolution demanding that Russia “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders.”

India also abstained on a U.N. Security Council vote (( )) that Russia vetoed.

India’s reluctance

Biden convened an emergency virtual Quad meeting on Thursday, a day after India’s abstention from General Assembly vote. The Quad, an informal grouping of the U.S., India, Australia and Japan, was established mainly to address regional concerns about China’s rise.

India — which relies on Russia militarily in its border disputes with Pakistan and China — is in a predicament, analysts say. While India’s Western allies expect it to uphold the liberal international order and condemn Russian aggression, its regional geopolitical requirements and dependence on Moscow limit its options.

“India cannot overnight stop all purchases — especially of military spare parts — from Russia, but it can show that going forward, it is going to speed up its military modernization and look to other defense partners — U.S., France, Israel, South Korea — instead,” said Aparna Pande, director of Hudson Institute’s Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia.

“This will be especially helpful as the CAATSA sanctions are still on the table when it comes to India’s purchase of [the] S-400 missile system from Russia,” Pande told VOA. He was referring to the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act — a law allowing sanctions on any country that has “significant transactions with Iran, North Korea or Russia.”

The administration is looking “very closely” at whether those sanctions should be applied to India, Donald Lu, U.S. assistant secretary of state for South Asia, told a Senate subcommittee hearing on Wednesday.

In a signal to Beijing, Quad leaders agreed that what was happening in Ukraine should not be allowed to happen in the Indo-Pacific, according to statements made by the prime ministers of Japan and Australia. The statements are in line with a joint statement issued after the summit that said the leaders had “discussed the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and assessed its broader implications.”

Perhaps evident of New Delhi’s resistance, however, the Quad statement did not mention Russia or use the word “invasion.” The White House has not responded to VOA’s request for more details about the meeting.

Emerging coalition in Indo-Pacific

Australia has targeted sanctions on key Russian banks, institutions and hundreds of individuals, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and his top officials. While Australia is not a NATO member, Canberra said it is providing medical supplies, financial assistance and lethal as well as nonlethal military equipment to Ukraine.

Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, has joined Western allies in blocking major Russian banks from a key international payment network known as SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication); freezing the assets of Putin, his top officials and oligarchs; and tightening export controls, including on semiconductors. It is also imposing sanctions on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and his top officials, condemning the country for allowing Russian troops to enter Ukraine through its territory.

South Korea has announced tighter export controls and joined the SWIFT cutoff of Russian banks. Among the controlled items are electronics, semiconductors and computers; information and communications supplies; sensors and lasers; navigation and avionics technology; and marine and aerospace equipment.

Taiwan, a democratically governed island that Beijing claims as its breakaway province, said it will align with the West on blocking Moscow from SWIFT. Home to the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, TSMC, Taipei also announced export control rules on chips.

A fractured ASEAN approach

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, has called for an immediate cease-fire and dialogue. While the statement was cautious, some observers say it’s notable that ASEAN, known for its principle of noninterference and neutrality toward major powers, even put out a statement at all. Still, it did not name Russia.

“The invasion should have alerted Southeast Asian policymakers because it tells us that international law, economic interdependence and confidence-building norms exercise — all key features of ASEAN’s regional order — are not sufficient to prevent an outright aggression,” Evan Laksmana, an Indo-Pacific security expert at the National University of Singapore, told VOA Khmer.

“More than the violation of principles Southeast Asian states claim to be sacrosanct, the invasion also tells us that gray zone tactics that major powers use — whether in Ukraine or South China Sea — may be a prelude to an outright war rather than an alternative to it.”

Some ASEAN members, however, have broken with the group and found their own voice in condemning Moscow. Most notably Singapore, which has announced financial sanctions and export controls on items that can be used as weapons against Ukrainians.

Others have released statements condemning the invasion but have not applied punitive measures. Indonesia, the largest Southeast Asian country, has condemned it as “unacceptable” but also did not mention Russia in its official statement. Nor did the Philippines and Brunei.

Other ASEAN members did not release individual statements but have joined the March 2 U.N. General Assembly resolution overwhelmingly supported by 141 countries.

“Mainly (it’s) the democratic states and those that are most closely aligned with the West, who are explicitly on their own condemning the invasion,” said Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Then you’ve got Malaysia and Thailand and Cambodia, who are only doing it under cover of the U.N.,” he told VOA.

In addition to Russia, four countries — Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria — voted against the U.N. resolution, and 35 countries abstained, including the ASEAN countries of Vietnam and Laos.

“Vietnam is stuck in a tough position here where its entire military is running on Russian hardware,” Poling said. “Laos was much more in the Soviet camp than other parties and still does have a very close strategic relationship with Russia.”

Myanmar’s representative at the U.N., acting on behalf of the government in exile, voted yes on the resolution against Russia.

However, the junta in Naypyidaw has thrown its support behind Moscow. “Russia has worked to consolidate its sovereignty,” General Zaw Min Tun, a spokesperson for Myanmar’s military council, said in an interview with VOA Burmese. He said the support is “the right thing to do” to show that “Russia is a world power.”

“The Myanmar junta has become close to Moscow, so it isn’t surprising that it is praising the Russian war effort,” Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, told VOA.

One reason for ASEAN’s fracture is the effort of individual countries to maintain a balance of power in the region.

“Most ASEAN member states use their relationships with Russia partly to offset the strength of China in the region,” said Aaron Connelly, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Many of them are loath to break relations with Russia because it’s part of the way that they diversify their relationships in the world.”

While ASEAN is limited in its geopolitical clout, Connelly pointed out that later this year ASEAN chair Cambodia will host the East Asia Summit, Thailand will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and Indonesia will host the G-20. All those forums include Russia, and if conflict persists, host countries will come under enormous pressure from Western countries to ban Moscow from the meetings.

Meanwhile, China has been careful to neither explicitly endorse nor condemn the Russian invasion. Analysts say Beijing is eyeing the Ukraine crisis with concern, however, and would prefer to see it peacefully resolved.

“The Chinese are risk averse, and if this crisis has taught them anything, it is that there are dire consequences to pay for doing stupid things,” said Sergey Radchenko, Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

“Putin has staked Russia’s future on this conflict, and he seems to be losing at the moment,” he told VOA. “Beijing is therefore looking for ways to bring Russia to its senses, perhaps through mediation.”

Some information in this report came from Reuters.

Ukraine Situation Should Not Be Allowed in Indo-Pacific

Washington / Tokyo — 

Leaders of the Quad grouping of countries — the United States, India, Australia and Japan — agreed on Thursday that what is happening to Ukraine should not be allowed to happen in the Indo-Pacific, the prime ministers of Japan and Australia said.

A virtual meeting of the four-country grouping was held as concerns are increasing about Taiwan, a self-ruled island claimed by China that has stepped up its alert level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, wary that Beijing might take advantage of a distracted West to move against it.

“We’ve agreed that unilateral changes to the status quo with force like this should not be allowed in the Indo-Pacific region,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, referring to Russia’s invasion.

“We’ve also agreed this development makes it even more important to work toward realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific,” Kishida told reporters after the meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“We cannot allow what is happening in Ukraine now to ever happen in the Indo-Pacific,” Morrison said in a statement after the meeting.

“We are resolute in our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region where smaller states do not need to live in fear of more powerful ones,” he added.

Reaffirming their ‘dedication’

A joint Quad statement said the leaders met to “reaffirm their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, in which the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states is respected and countries are free from military, economic and political coercion.”

The leaders, whose call followed a meeting of their foreign ministers in Australia last month, also “reaffirmed their dedication to the Quad as a mechanism to promote regional stability and prosperity.”

The statement, which added that the leaders had agreed to meet in person in Tokyo “in the coming months,” didn’t mention Taiwan but did say the leaders discussed the conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.

“They agreed to stand up a new humanitarian assistance and disaster relief mechanism which will enable the Quad to meet future humanitarian challenges in the Indo-Pacific and provide a channel for communication as they each address and respond to the crisis in Ukraine,” it said.

Biden tweeted that the meeting with the Quad leaders covered “our commitment to sovereignty and territorial integrity around the world, including in the Indo-Pacific.”

Taiwan responds

Taiwan’s representative office in Washington said it welcomed the Quad’s commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. “Taiwan will continue to work with all peace-loving partners in the region for prosperity and stability,” it said.

Modi “underlined that the Quad must remain focused on its core objective of promoting peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region,” his office said.

It said developments in Ukraine were discussed, including the conflict’s humanitarian implications, and Modi “emphasized the need to return to a path of dialogue and diplomacy.”

Washington sees the Quad and its growing relations with India as essential to its efforts to push back against China, but it is in a delicate balancing act with New Delhi, given the latter’s long-standing ties with Russia.

Of the Quad countries, only India has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia is the main supplier of arms to the Indian military, and India faces the possibility of U.S. sanctions for its purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system.

Analysts say any moves by the U.S to impose sanctions on India for working with Moscow could set back Quad cooperation.

Donald Lu, U.S. assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, told a Senate subcommittee hearing on Wednesday that Washington had been fighting a “pitched battle” with India in diplomatic channels to urge it to take a clear position opposed to Russian actions in Ukraine.

He also said it was looking “very closely” at whether to the apply sanctions on India over its Russian arms deals.

US Indo-Pacific Strategy Short on Trade Incentives, Experts Say

washington — 

A major initiative to strengthen and cement America’s ties with Asia and counterbalance China’s expanding influence lacks robust trade incentives that are viewed as politically perilous in the United States, where protectionist sentiment runs high, experts told VOA.

The United States needs to intensify its focus on the Indo-Pacific region because of the “mounting challenges” posed by the rise of China, according to a strategy document released by the Biden administration last week.

“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] is combining its economic, diplomatic, military and technological might as it pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific and seeks to become the world’s most influential power,” the strategy document said.

That description of China largely mirrors the view taken by the former Trump administration, which often took a bluntly adversarial stance toward Beijing. Beyond rhetoric, however, Biden’s strategy seeks to shore up regional alliances and partnerships that many see as critical to U.S. strategy in Asia.

It responds to the desire of many countries in the region for the United States to play a galvanizing role in addressing common challenges such as public health, climate change and anti-corruption, Ryan Hass, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told VOA.

“It is a welcome departure from the America-first mindset during the Trump era,” Hass said.

No economic framework, leadership

The new strategy calls for advancing freedom and openness, building collective defense capacity within and beyond the region, and building regional resilience. It also embraces what the administration calls “promoting shared prosperity.”

But Hass and other observers say the Indo-Pacific strategy lacks a coherent trade framework that gives countries in the region a good economic reason to deepen relations with the U.S. They say Washington’s international economic agenda should match the leadership role the United States seeks for itself in the region.

Robert Daly, director of the Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, told VOA the strategy suffers from a fundamental contradiction in that it implies that the U.S. will engage in a high degree of global activism, following years of far more isolationist foreign policy under the Trump administration. At the same time, the Biden administration has not primed the American public to shift away from the Trumpian critique of globalization.

“They’ve put themselves in a box where they, for political reasons, seem to accept the Trump view that globalization is the playground of self-indulgent coastal American elites who don’t care about the heartland [of America],” Daly said. “What was needed was a better form of globalization that serves American interests — the Biden administration has chosen not to take that on.

Preceding Trump, the former Obama administration championed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a massive trade agreement with 11 other countries designed to be the cornerstone of U.S. economic policy in the region. The Trump administration withdrew from the TPP in 2017, leaving the other members to sign a revised deal, called Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

With no public support for multilateral trade agreements, the Biden administration has said it has no plans to join the CPTPP and has made clear it intends to continue its predecessor’s protectionist trade policies.

The White House has not yet shared details of its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a component of the larger Indo-Pacific Strategy. The framework, which they billed as a “multilateral partnership for the 21st century,” was scheduled for launch early this year.

“As we consult with the Indo-Pacific partners, Congress and other stakeholders, we will have more to share as the process is ongoing,” deputy White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told VOA on Thursday. “It’s underway.”

The administration said the framework would “promote and facilitate high-standards trade, govern the digital economy, improve supply-chain resiliency and security, catalyze investment in transparent, high-standards infrastructure, and build digital connectivity — doubling down on our economic ties to the region while contributing to broadly shared Indo-Pacific opportunity.”

But officials have acknowledged the framework will not include opening up American markets, the economic carrot that analysts say is missing from the strategy.

“Why would regional states agree to serious concessions on climate or labor standards if the United States is unwilling to discuss trade or investment liberalization?” asked Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “It appears that Washington is content to remain on the sidelines as Beijing integrates more deeply into the region’s economic order.”

In a briefing to reporters this month, a senior administration official acknowledged that regional countries want more but are “very realistic” about the constraints and challenges that shape the Biden trade policy.

Build Back Better World

Some analysts see the potential for incentives beyond market access.

“The promise of this [Indo-Pacific] initiative is that it will offer some other things that aren’t market access,” said Matthew Goodman, senior vice president for economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Goodman told VOA those may include improving international trade regulations or investing in infrastructure as promised in the Build Back Better World initiative.

Biden launched his Build Back Better World plan (B3W) during the June 2021 Group of Seven summit, with the goal of creating “a values-driven, high-standard and transparent infrastructure partnership” to help finance projects in developing countries.

U.S. officials led by Daleep Singh, the deputy national security adviser for international economics, have scouted several countries in Latin America and Africa to identify potential infrastructure projects, particularly those that focus on climate, health, digital technology and gender equality.

“There’s been enormous enthusiasm in every country we visited, Ecuador, Colombia, Panama, Ghana, Senegal, DRC [Democratic Republic of the Congo], parts of the Middle East, Indonesia, Thailand, and other parts of the world,” Singh told VOA Friday.

B3W has been framed as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s international development program that has financed infrastructure projects in Asia, Africa and Latin America and has made inroads in Europe. China’s BRI investments have been criticized by outside groups for not assessing environmental and social impacts, lacking financial transparency and leaving some governments struggling to pay for costly infrastructure.

“The reason there’s so much enthusiasm is that countries do want a choice,” Singh said. “For a long time. China has been the only game in town for many of these countries, and in many cases, they have buyers regret.”

Last year the administration promised to include details of some initial projects during the formal launch of the initiative, originally scheduled for early 2022.

“We will have more details to come in the coming months on how to continue to implement this initiative, and the projects the U.S. government is investing in with allies and partners,” Jean-Pierre said to VOA Thursday. “This is something that the president is committed to.”

FILE – From left: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Australia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Marise Payne, India’s Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar, and Foreign Minister of Japan Yoshimasa Hayashi participate in the Quad foreign ministers’ press conference in Melbourne, Feb. 11, 2022.

Allies and partners

Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy promises steps to deepen America’s existing treaty alliances with Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand. It also aims to strengthen relationships with regional partners such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Pacific Islands.

Continuing Trump’s approach, the administration is putting strong emphasis on the Quad – a regional grouping among the U.S., India, Japan and Australia.

Much of the strategy rests on the presumption of what the other actors will do, according to Aparna Pande, director of the Hudson Institute’s Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia.

“Japan and South Korea should get along, ASEAN should remain central, India should play a bigger role,” she told VOA, pointing out that with India’s plummeting economic growth, New Delhi may not be able to accept that challenge.

The strategy also aims to strengthen deterrence of military threats, with Japan and South Korea to pursue denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang has taken a series of provocative steps while ignoring Washington’s offer of talks without preconditions.

North Korea conducted 11 missile launches in January, a record in a single month, including a new type of “hypersonic missile” able to maneuver at high speed. It has also raised the possibility of restarting nuclear or intercontinental ballistic missile tests.

FILE – In this U.S. Navy photo, the Virginia-class fast-attack submarine USS Missouri departs Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Sept. 1, 2021. Australia decided to invest in U.S. nuclear-powered submarines and dump its contract with France to build diesel-electric submarines because of a changed strategic environment.

Military deals

While the Biden administration is not offering greater access to American markets, it has been handing out military deals.

Earlier this month, the administration approved a possible $100 million sale of equipment and services to Taiwan to “sustain, maintain and improve” its Patriot missile defense system.

The sale is in line with the Indo-Pacific Strategy goal of supporting Taipei’s self-defense capabilities in hopes of promoting peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. However, it has triggered an angry threat of retaliation from Beijing, which claims the democratically self-governed Taiwan as its breakaway province.

Earlier this month, the administration also approved the potential sale of F-15ID aircraft and related equipment to Indonesia in a deal valued at up to $13.9 billion, despite human rights concerns that have delayed previous arms sales to the country. The last arms deal made by Washington and Jakarta was in 2011.

Other deals include AUKUS, the September trilateral security pact with Australia and the United Kingdom to provide Canberra with nuclear-powered submarines.

More deals are expected and sharper contours of the Indo-Pacific Strategy may take shape as Biden hosts ASEAN leaders in Washington in the coming months and travels to the region for summits later in the year.

US Vows Stepped Up Indo-Pacific Effort in Push Back Against China

WASHINGTON — 

The United States vowed on Friday to commit more diplomatic and security resources to the Indo-Pacific to push back against what it sees as China’s bid to create a regional sphere of influence and become the world’s most influential power.

In a 12-page strategy overview, the Biden administration said it would focus on every corner of the region, from South Asia to the Pacific Islands, to strengthen its long-term position and commitment.

“The PRC is combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological might as it pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific and seeks to become the world’s most influential power,” it said referring to the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

“Our collective efforts over the next decade will determine whether the PRC succeeds in transforming the rules and norms that have benefited the Indo-Pacific and the world,” the overview said.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a joint press availability at the Quad meeting of foreign ministers in Melbourne, Australia, Feb. 11, 2022.

Release of the document was timed to coincide with a visit to the Indo-Pacific by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and intended to emphasize the priority the United States attaches to the region, even as Washington grapples with a dangerous standoff with Moscow, which has massed more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border, stoking Western fears of an invasion.

It also comes after China and Russia declared last week a “no limits” strategic partnership, their most detailed and assertive statement to work together — and against the United States — to build a new international order based on their own interpretations of human rights and democracy.

In its document, the United States vowed to modernize alliances, strengthen emerging partnerships, and invest in regional organizations. It particularly stressed the importance of “a strong India” as a partner in a positive regional vision.

It said the United States would pursue a “free and open Indo-Pacific … through a latticework of strong and mutually reinforcing coalitions.”

Under an action plan for the next 12-24 months, the document said Washington would “meaningfully expand” its diplomatic presence in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands and prioritize key negotiations with Pacific island states that cover access for the U.S. military and which have appeared to stall in the past year.

“We will refocus security assistance on the Indo-Pacific, including to build maritime capacity and maritime-domain awareness,” it said.

On the highly sensitive potential flashpoint of self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own, Washington would work with partners inside and outside the region to maintain peace and stability in the strait dividing the island from China, it said.

The action plan also vows to expand the U.S. Coast Guard presence and cooperation in South, Southeast Asia and the Pacific, where Washington has identified China as a threat to fishing and free-trade routes.

“We recognize the limitations in our ability to change China, and therefore seek to shape the strategic environment around China,” a senior U.S. administration official told reporters, adding that the document did not embody the administration’s broader China strategy.

“Our China strategy is global in scope. It recognizes the Indo-Pacific is a particularly intense region of competition,” he said.

The document reiterated U.S. plans to launch an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework in early 2022, an initiative the administration hopes will at least partially fill a big gap in engagement with the region since former President Donald Trump quit a multinational trade framework in 2017.

It said the United States’ approach to trade would “meet high labor and environmental standards,” a reference making clear that the administration will stick to its vow to avoid damage to America jobs in economic dealings with the region.

Blinken Boosts Indo-Pacific Ties, Keeps Up Ukraine Diplomacy

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Australia for talks on security and fighting COVID-19. But the massing of Russian troops along Ukraine’s border has also cast a spotlight on the growing partnership between China and Russia. VOA’s senior diplomatic correspondent Cindy Saine reports.
Camera: Nike Ching