Iran to Answer UN Nuclear Questions as Deal Talks Near End

VIENNA — 

Iran has agreed to supply answers long sought by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, Tehran and the U.N. agency said Saturday, as talks in Vienna over its tattered atomic deal with world powers appear to be coming to an end.

A joint statement by Mohammad Eslami, the head of the civilian Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, and Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy, came hours after the two met in Tehran.

It envisions the issue of the discovery of uranium particles at former undeclared sites in the country being wrapped up by June — a move that is separate from the talks over the nuclear deal but could help push them to a conclusion.

But meanwhile, Russia’s foreign minister for the first time linked American sanctions on Moscow over its war on Ukraine to the ongoing Iran nuclear deal talks — adding a new wrinkle to the delicate diplomacy.

Grossi said in Tehran that “it would be difficult to believe or to imagine that such an important return to such a comprehensive agreement like the (nuclear deal) would be possible if the agency and Iran would not be seeing eye to eye on how to resolve these important safeguards issues.” Safeguards in the IAEA’s parlance refer to the agency’s inspections and monitoring of a country’s nuclear program.

Grossi for years has sought for Iran to answer questions about human-made uranium particles found at former undeclared nuclear sites in the country. U.S. intelligence agencies, Western nations and the IAEA have said Iran ran an organized nuclear weapons program until 2003. Iran long has denied ever seeking nuclear weapons.

Eslami said the men had reached an “agreement” that would see Iran “presenting documents that would remove the ambiguities about our country.” He did not elaborate on what the documents would discuss.

The later joint statement said that Eslami’s agency will by March 20 give the U.N. nuclear watchdog “written explanations including related supporting documents to the questions raised by the IAEA which have not been addressed by Iran on the issues related to three locations.”

Within two weeks, it said, the IAEA will review that information and submit any questions, and within a week of that the two agencies will meet in Tehran to address the questions.

Grossi will then aim to report his conclusions by the time the IAEA board of governors meets in June.

The nuclear deal saw Iran agree to drastically limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of crushing economic sanctions. But a 2018 decision by then-President Donald Trump to unilaterally withdraw America from the agreement sparked years of tensions and attacks across the wider Middle East.

International Atomic Energy Organization, IAEA, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, left, and Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian shake hands prior to their meeting in Tehran, March 5, 2022.

Today, Tehran enriches uranium up to 60% purity — its highest level ever and a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90% and far greater than the nuclear deal’s 3.67% cap. Its stockpile of enriched uranium also continues to grow, worrying nuclear nonproliferation experts that Iran could be closer to the threshold of having enough material for an atomic weapon if it chose to pursue one.

Undeclared sites played into the initial 2015 deal as well. That year the IAEA’s then-director-general also came to Tehran and visited a suspected weapons-program site at Parchin. Inspectors also took samples there for analysis.

Grossi’s inspectors also face challenges in monitoring Iran’s current advances in its civilian program. Iran has held IAEA surveillance camera recordings since February 2021, not letting inspectors view them amid the nuclear negotiations.

In Vienna, negotiators appear to be signaling a deal is near — even as Russia’s war on Ukraine rages on. Russia’s ambassador there, Mikhail Ulyanov, has been a key mediator in the talks and tweeted Thursday that negotiations were “almost over.” That was something also acknowledged by French negotiator Philippe Errera.

“We hope to come back quickly to conclude because we are very, very close to an agreement,” Errera wrote Friday on Twitter. “But nothing is agreed until EVERYTHING is agreed!”

British negotiator Stephanie Al-Qaq simply wrote: “We are close.”

But comments Saturday by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for the first time offered the suggestion that the Ukraine war — and the stinging sanctions that Americans and others have put on Moscow — could interfere.

“We need guarantees these sanctions will in no way affect the trading, economic and investment relations contained in the (deal) for the Iranian nuclear program,” Lavrov said, according to the Tass news agency.

Lavrov said he wanted “guarantees at least at the level of the secretary of state” that the U.S. sanctions would not affect Moscow’s relationship with Tehran. There was no immediate American response to Lavrov’s comments.

Meanwhile on Saturday, Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard unveiled what it described as two new underground missile and drone bases in the country. State TV said the bases contained surface-to-surface missiles and armed drones capable of “hiding themselves from enemy radar.”

UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief Arrives in Tehran as UK Says Deal 'Close'

Tehran — 

The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s chief arrived Friday in Tehran amid hopes of reviving a 2015 accord between Iran and world powers, with Britain saying a deal was “close.”

The visit by International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi, who was set to meet Iranian officials Saturday, is seen as critical to clinching agreement over a return to the nuclear deal and comes in parallel to negotiations in the Austrian capital to salvage the accord.

Grossi “was received on arrival in Tehran by Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran,” the Iranian body said in a statement on its website. He is to meet with its chief Saturday.

“This is a critical time but a positive outcome for everyone is possible,” Grossi wrote on Twitter earlier Friday.

The next few days are widely seen as a crunch point for the negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program — the latest round of which started in late November in Vienna.

“We are close. E3 negotiators [are] leaving Vienna briefly to update ministers on [the] state of play,” the head of the British delegation, Stephanie Al-Qaq, said Friday, referring to negotiators from Britain, France and Germany.

She added that they were “ready to return soon.”

Along with counterparts from China, Iran and Russia, they have been taking part in the latest round of talks in the Austrian capital since late November, with the U.S. participating indirectly.

Grossi had vowed earlier this week that the IAEA would “never abandon” its attempts to get Iran to clarify the past presence of nuclear material at several undeclared sites.

Iran has said the closure of the probe is necessary to clinch a deal on the nuclear accord.

Grossi is expected to hold a news conference on his return to Vienna.

Ready to go to Vienna

The EU has been chairing the nuclear deal talks, and the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said Friday that he hoped “to have results this weekend,” while stressing that there was “still work ongoing.”

The 2015 deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was aimed at guaranteeing that Iran’s nuclear program could not be used to develop a nuclear weapon — something Tehran has always denied wanting to do.

It began unravelling when then-U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from it in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, prompting Iran to start disregarding the limits on its nuclear activity laid down in the agreement.

Earlier Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said he was prepared to travel to the Austrian capital if a deal was reached.

“I am ready to go to Vienna when the Western sides accept our remaining red lines,” he said in a phone call with Borrell, quoted in a foreign ministry statement.

While Amir-Abdollahian did not define the “red lines,” Iran has repeatedly demanded the right to verify the removal of sanctions and for guarantees the U.S. will not repeat its withdrawal from the agreement.

On Thursday, U.S. State Department deputy press spokeswoman Jalina Porter said negotiators were “close to a possible deal,” but that “a number of difficult issues” remained unresolved.

However, “if Iran shows seriousness, we can and should reach an understanding of mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA within days,” she added.

UN Nuclear Watchdog Warns Iran's Uranium Stockpile Beyond Limits of 2015 Deal

The United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, warned Thursday that Iran had increased its stockpile of uranium well beyond the limits established in the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, inching it closer to being capable of building a nuclear weapon.

In a confidential quarterly report to member nations, the IAEA said Iran has an estimated 33.2 kilograms of uranium enriched to up to 60% fissile purity, an increase of 15.5 kilograms since November.

Such highly enriched uranium can be easily refined to make nuclear weapons. According to The Associated Press, the 33.2-kilogram figure brings Iran closer to having enough weapons-grade uranium to produce such a weapon.

The IAEA report estimates that as of February 19, Iran’s stockpile of all enriched uranium was roughly 3.2 metric tons, an increase of 707.4 kilograms.

The report comes as senior diplomats from the original signatories of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, have been meeting in Vienna with Iranian officials since November, trying to reinstate the agreement.

The head of the IAEA, Director-General Rafael Grossi said he will travel to Vienna Saturday “for meetings with senior Iranian officials,” the IAEA said Thursday.

The IAEA said these latest uranium figures, which could not be fully verified because of limits placed on the agency by Iran, indicate that time may be running out for the negotiators.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse.

Iran Studying Draft Deal to Restore Nuclear Agreement

TEHRAN, IRAN — 

Iran is studying a rough draft of a deal to revive a 2015 nuclear agreement with major powers hammered out during talks in Vienna, its foreign minister said Saturday.

All sides have said the talks on bringing the United States back into the agreement after then-President Donald Trump’s 2018 walkout have reached a critical stage, and Iran’s chief negotiator Ali Bagheri has been back in Tehran for consultations.

Iran is “seriously reviewing [the] draft of the agreement,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on Twitter, adding he had spoken by phone with the European Union’s top diplomat Josep Borrel.

The EU has been acting as an intermediary between Iranian negotiators and a U.S. delegation in the absence of U.S. participation in face-to-face talks between Tehran and the remaining parties to the 2015 agreement.

We are “all trying to reach a good deal,” Amir-Abdollahian added. “Our red lines are made clear to western parties. Ready to immediately conclude a good deal, should they show real will.”

The 2015 agreement, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, provided Iran with relief from sanctions in return for strict limits to its nuclear activities.

Since Trump reimposed sanctions in 2018, Iran has gradually suspended its compliance with many of the restrictions it agreed to under the deal, something that it is now expected to reverse.

Amir-Abdollahian said Wednesday the talks had reached “a critical and important stage.”

He said he hoped the remaining “sensitive and important issues” would be resolved in the coming days “with realism from the Western side.”

Iran Nuclear Chief Says Country Will Enrich Uranium to 20% Even After Nuclear Deal

Dubai — 

Iran will continue to enrich uranium to 20% purity even after sanctions on it are lifted and a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers is revived, Iranian news agencies quoted the country’s nuclear chief as saying on Friday.

“(Uranium) enrichment … continues with a maximum ceiling of 60%, which led Westerners to rush to negotiations, and it will continue with the lifting of sanctions by both 20% and 5%,” the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, was quoted by the semi-official news agency Fars as saying.

The 2015 deal restricts the purity to which Iran can enrich uranium to 3.67%, far below the roughly 90% that is weapons-grade or the 20% Iran reached before the deal. Iran is now enriching to various levels, the highest being around 60%.

Eslami did not elaborate or explain how 20% enrichment would be acceptable under the 2015 nuclear deal which Iran has been trying to revive through indirect talks with the United States.

Iranian officials had told Reuters earlier that Iran had agreed to suspend its 20% and 60% enrichment if an agreement is reached in the Vienna talks to salvage the 2015 pact.

Separately, a senior Iranian cleric said earlier that ending Iran’s economic isolation by lifting banking and oil trade sanctions was Tehran’s most important demand in talks with world powers in the Austrian capital Vienna.

Iran on Wednesday urged the West to be “realistic” in the talks, as its top negotiator returned to Tehran for what might be final consultations ahead of a possible accord following months of indirect talks with the United States.

“Our negotiators… do their best to ensure the nation’s interests, and know that the final point is the lifting of all sanctions, especially on banking and trade,” Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said at Friday prayers in Tehran.

“If these sanctions are not lifted, it is as if there were no talks,” state media quoted him as saying.

The general content of sermons delivered at Friday prayers is set by the office of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on Iran’s nuclear policy and all other matters of state.

After 10 months of talks in Vienna, progress has been made toward the restoration of the pact to curb Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, but both Tehran and Washington have cautioned that still there are some significant differences to overcome.

A majority of Iran’s hardline-led parliament demanded in a letter last week that the United States should guarantee that they would not abandon a restored agreement. The assembly has not voted on the letter.

A senior Iranian official has told Reuters that Iran has shown flexibility by agreeing to “inherent guarantees” that the U.S. administration will not quit an agreement, as Washington says it is impossible for President Joe Biden to provide the legal assurances Iran has demanded.

Iran insists on the immediate removal of all sanctions imposed under former U.S. President Donald Trump in a verifiable process, including those imposed under terrorism or human rights measures.

Iran Lawmakers Want Guarantees that West Won't Exit Any Revived Nuclear Deal

Iranian lawmakers have urged President Ebrahim Raisi to obtain guarantees from the United States and three European countries that they won’t exit the nuclear deal being renegotiated in Vienna, Iranian state media reported on Sunday.

In a letter to Raisi, they stated that the United States and European parties to the nuclear deal — Britain, France, and Germany — should also guarantee that they would not trigger the “snapback mechanism” under which sanctions on Iran would be immediately reinstated if it violates nuclear compliance.

“We have to learn a lesson from past experiences and put a red line on the national interest by not committing to any agreement without obtaining necessary guarantees first,” lawmakers said in the letter.

The statement was signed by 250 out of 290 Iranian parliamentarians.

It comes as negotiators from Iran and the remaining parties to the agreement — Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China — are working to revive a 2015 deal, which granted Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program.

The United States has participated indirectly in the talks because it withdrew from the deal in 2018 under then-President Donald Trump. President Joe Biden has signaled that he wants to rejoin the agreement.

Iran’s lawmakers also made it a condition that a return to the deal should only go ahead if all sanctions on Iran are lifted.

They also first want to confirm that Iran receives money from its exports, before Tehran returns to nuclear compliance, the letter said.

On February 19, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the talks in Vienna have come a long way over the past 10 months and that “all elements for a conclusion of the negotiations are on the table.”

But he also criticized Iran for continuing enrichment while suspending monitoring by the UN nuclear agency.

On the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that it’s up to Western countries to show flexibility and “the ball is now in their court.” He said Iran was “ready to achieve a good deal.”

Information from AP and AFP was used in this report.

Germany's Scholz Says Now is 'Moment of Truth' for Iran Deal

MUNICH — 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Saturday that “now is the moment of truth” to determine whether Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers can be salvaged, and the Iranian leadership needs to make a choice.

Iran’s foreign minister, though, said that it’s up to Western countries to show flexibility and “the ball is now in their court.”

Negotiators from Iran and the remaining parties to the agreement — Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — are working in Vienna to restore life to the accord, which granted Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program.

The United States has participated indirectly in the talks because it withdrew from the deal in 2018 under then-President Donald Trump. President Joe Biden has signaled that he wants to rejoin the deal.

Under Trump, the U.S. reimposed heavy sanctions on Iran. Tehran has responded by increasing the purity and amounts of uranium it enriches and stockpiles, in breach of the accord — formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.

Scholz told participants at the annual Munich Security Conference on Saturday that Iran nuclear talks have come a long way over the past 10 months and “all elements for a conclusion of the negotiations are on the table.” But he also criticized Iran for stepping up its enrichment and restricting inspections by monitors from the U.N. nuclear agency.

“We now have the opportunity to reach an agreement that makes it possible for sanctions to be lifted,” Scholz said. “At the same time, it’s the case that if we don’t succeed very quickly in this, the negotiations threaten to fail.”

“The Iranian leadership now has a choice,” the chancellor said. “Now is the moment of truth.”

Speaking a few hours later at the same Munich conference, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said that “we are ready to achieve a good deal at the earliest possible time — if the other side makes the needed political decision.”

Amirabdollahian insisted that “we are in a hurry” to reach a deal. But he made clear that the issue of guarantees from the U.S. about a restored deal’s future remains a sticking point.

“We have never been this close to a deal,” he said. “It is the Western side that has to present its initiatives and show flexibility … they have not shown any flexibility so far.”

Iran so far has declined to talk directly to the United States. The foreign minister suggested that direct talks would only make sense if the U.S. lifts some sanctions or releases some Iranian assets frozen in foreign banks.

Iran long has insisted its nuclear program is peaceful. But the country’s steps away from its obligations under the 2015 accord have alarmed its archenemy Israel and world powers.

Tehran has since started enriching uranium up to 60% purity — a short technical step from the 90% needed to make an atomic bomb, and spinning far more advanced centrifuges than those permitted under the deal.

Decision on Iran Nuclear Deal Days Away; Ball in Tehran's court

France on Wednesday said a decision on salvaging Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers was just days away and that it was now up to Tehran to make the political choice.

Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the tattered agreement resumed last week after a 10-day hiatus and officials from the other parties to the accord – Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia – have shuttled between the two sides as they seek to close gaps.

Western diplomats previously indicated they hoped to have a breakthrough by now, but tough issues remain unresolved. Iran has rejected any deadline imposed by Western powers.

“We have reached tipping point now. It’s not a matter of weeks, it’s a matter of days,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told parliament, adding that the Western powers, Russia and China were in accord on the outlines of the accord.
“Political decisions are needed from the Iranians. Either they trigger a serious crisis in the coming days, or they accept the agreement which respects the interests of all parties.”

Several other sources tracking the talks said that the next couple of days would be crucial in determining whether there was a way to revive the agreement.

The agreement began to unravel in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States and reimposed broad economic sanctions on Iran, which then began breaching the deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment activity a year later.

Diplomats and analysts say the longer Iran remains outside the deal, the more nuclear expertise it will gain, shortening the time it might need to race to build a bomb if it chose to, thereby vitiating the accord’s original purpose. Tehran denies it has ever sought to develop nuclear arms.

Western diplomats say they are now in the final phase of the talks and believe that a deal is within reach.

‘Moment of Truth’

“We are coming to the moment of truth. If we want Iran to respect its (nuclear) non-proliferation commitments and in exchange for the United States to lift sanctions, there has to be something left to do it,” Le Drian said.

Iran’s foreign ministry said on Monday it was “in a hurry” to strike a new deal as long as its national interests were protected and that restoring the pact required “political decisions by the West.”

Ali Shamkhani, hardline secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, underlined Iranian wariness by saying on Wednesday that the 2015 accord had become economically worthless for Iran and he blamed the United States and European powers.

“The United States and Europe failed to meet their obligations under the (deal). The deal has now become an empty shell for Iran in the economic sphere and the lifting of sanctions. There will be no negotiations beyond the nuclear deal with a non-compliant America and a passive Europe,” he tweeted.

China’s envoy to the talks said on Wednesday Iran was being constructive by putting everything on the table in response to U.S. approaches. “They have not only adopted this straightforward approach but also made a political decision based on give and take,” Wang Qun told Reuters.

Bones of contention remain Iran’s demand for a U.S. guarantee of no more sanctions or other punitive steps in future, and how and when to restore verifiable restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear activity.

The agreement curbed Iran’s enrichment of uranium to make it harder for Tehran to develop material for nuclear weapons, in return for a lifting of international sanctions.

The Islamic Republic has since rebuilt stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity, close to weapons-grade, and installed advanced centrifuges to speed up enrichment.

Trudeau Invokes Emergency Authority to Deal with Protests

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked rarely used emergency powers Monday to confront protests led by truckers that have clogged streets in the capital, Ottawa, as well as several key border crossings with the United States.

Trudeau said the Emergencies Act would give authorities more power to arrest protesters and seize their trucks.

He said at a news conference, “We cannot and will not allow illegal and dangerous activities to continue.”

A woman faces off with police during a protest over pandemic health rules outside the parliament of Canada in Ottawa on February 11, 2022. (Photo by Ed JONES / AFP)

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the government would also use anti-money-laundering regulations to target crowd-funding sites that have helped finance the blockades.

Protesters in trucks and other vehicles have gathered in Ottawa for two weeks, expressing objection to vaccine mandates for truckers and other coronavirus measures.

One U.S.-Canadian border crossing was cleared Sunday after nearly a week, with police arresting dozens of people.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.

Foreign Minister Says Iran Eager to Revive Nuclear Deal if Interests Secured

Iran is “in a hurry” to strike a new nuclear accord as long as its national interests are protected, its foreign minister said on Monday as Tehran and the United States resumed indirect talks on salvaging Tehran’s 2015 agreement with world powers.

The talks, with European intermediaries shuttling between the two, have been held in Vienna since April amid growing Western fears about Tehran’s accelerating nuclear advances, seen by Western powers as irreversible unless a deal is struck soon.

The 2015 deal limited Iran’s enrichment of uranium to make it harder for Tehran to develop material for nuclear weapons, in return for a lifting of international sanctions against Tehran.

But it has eroded since 2018 when then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States and reimposed far-reaching sanctions on Iran. The Islamic Republic has since breached the deal’s limits and gone well beyond, rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output.

“Iran is in a hurry to reach agreement in Vienna…, but this should be within the framework of our national interest,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian told a news conference in Tehran.

He urged Western powers to stop “playing with time.”

Western leaders say time is running out for a viable accord and have accusing Iran of stalling to increase its leverage.

Parties involved in the talks, which resumed last week after a 10-day break, have voiced hope about restoring the pact despite what Tehran has said are “key outstanding issues that require political decisions by the West.”

“Talks are not at a dead end…Iran has already taken its political decision by staying in the deal despite the U.S. withdrawal,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said.

Remaining gaps

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that “some 30% of difficult issues remain to be resolved but it is possible to reach a deal by early March.” A Western diplomat said “reaching a deal is possible around early March, if all goes well.”

After eight rounds of talks, key bones of contention include Iran’s demand for a U.S. guarantee of no more sanctions or other punitive steps in future, and how and when to restore verifiable restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activity.

A second Iranian official said Tehran was also insisting on being able to seal and store its advanced centrifuges inside Iran, rather than dismantling and sending them abroad, as Western powers have called for.

He said Iran further wants the removal of some 300 extra sanctions on Iranian entities and individuals not related to the nuclear deal.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has said it will remove curbs inconsistent with the 2015 pact if Iran resumes compliance with it, implying Washington would leave in place sanctions imposed under terrorism or human rights measures.

U.S. officials have said the Biden administration cannot guarantee that a U.S. government would never renege on the agreement because it is classified as a non-binding political understanding, not a legally binding treaty.

US Says Iran Talks Are at Urgent Point, Few Weeks Left to Complete Deal

WASHINGTON — 

The White House publicly pressured Iran on Wednesday to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement quickly, saying it will be impossible to return to the accord if a deal is not struck within weeks.

“Our talks with Iran have reached an urgent point,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters, noting that the U.S. special envoy for Iran, Rob Malley, has returned to Vienna for indirect talks with Iran on both sides resuming compliance with the pact.

“A deal that addresses the core concerns of all sides is in sight, but if it’s not reached in the coming weeks Iran’s ongoing nuclear advances will make it impossible for us to return to the JCPOA,” she said, referring to the deal by the acronym for its official name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Psaki’s comments echoed those of a senior U.S. State Department official who told reporters on January 31 that “we only have a handful of weeks left” to revive the agreement.

Under the accord, Iran restricted its nuclear program to make it harder to obtain the fissile material to make a bomb, an ambition that Tehran denies. In return, the United States and other nations eased sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned the deal in 2018, arguing that it had failed to stop Iran’s support for regional proxies and gave Tehran too much sanctions relief for the nuclear restrictions. He then restored U.S. sanctions, prompting Iran to begin violating the deal’s nuclear limits a year later.

Iran Nuclear Talks Set to Resume with Deal 'In Sight'

Talks to revive a deal with Iran on its contested nuclear program were set to resume on Tuesday in Vienna after both Washington and Tehran signaled their willingness to clinch an agreement as soon as possible.

The negotiations — attended by Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia and indirectly the United States — were halted at the end of last month.

The resumption of talks comes after parties in recent weeks cited progress in seeking to revive the 2015 accord that was supposed to prevent Iran from acquiring an atomic bomb, a goal it has always denied pursuing.

“A deal that addresses all sides’ core concerns is in sight, but if it is not reached in the coming weeks, Iran’s ongoing nuclear advances will make it impossible for us to return to the JCPOA,” a US State Department spokesperson said on Monday, referring to the 2015 framework agreement.

Parties have been negotiating in Vienna, with indirect US participation, since last year.

A source close to the discussions told AFP that the delegations had arrived in the Austrian capital and that the discussions were set to resume in the afternoon at the upmarket Coburg Palace hotel.

The United States, under former president Donald Trump, unilaterally withdrew from the pact in 2018 and reimposed tough economic sanctions on Iran, prompting the Islamic republic to begin pulling back from its commitments under the deal and step up its nuclear activities.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said on Monday that answers that “the United States brings… to Vienna will determine when we can reach an agreement.”

“We have made significant progress in various areas of the Vienna negotiations” including on guarantees sought by Iran that the United States would not breach the deal once again, Khatibzadeh told reporters.

‘Decisive moment’

Experts say the Iranians have deviated so much from the restrictions of the 2015 deal that they are only weeks away from having enough fissile material to make an atomic weapon.

Washington has sought direct negotiations in this home stretch, but said talks remain indirect at Iran’s request.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called it “the decisive moment” in an interview with the Washington Post published on Monday.

“We gave them a clear message that now this is the time for decisions and for progress, and not for prolonging the process,” he said. “We hope that they will use the chance.”

“We are five minutes away from the finish line,” Russian negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov said in an interview to the Russian daily Kommersant.

“A draft of the final document has been crafted. There are several points there that need more work, but that document is already on the table,” he continued.

On Friday, Washington made a gesture by announcing it was waiving sanctions on Iran’s civil nuclear program, a technical step necessary to return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.

The waiver allows other countries and companies to participate in Iran’s civil nuclear program without triggering US sanctions, in the name of promoting safety and non-proliferation.

The move “should facilitate technical discussions necessary to support talks on JCPOA return in Vienna,” negotiators of Britain, France and Germany said in a joint statement Saturday.

For Iran, though, the move fell short.

“Continuing maximum pressure against #Iran, current US administration has so far tried to meet the goals that Trump failed to achieve through bullying, by making unsupported promises.

“With this Washington’s illusions, the path to negotiations will not be smooth” Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said in a tweet written in English on Tuesday.

Frontier Airlines Buying Spirit in $3B Low-Cost Carrier Deal

Frontier is buying Spirit Airlines in a $2.9 billion cash-and-stock deal that will create the nation’s fifth largest carrier.

The tie-up is valued at $6.6 billion when accounting for the assumption of debt and other liabilities.

The companies said Monday that the transaction will provide more low-cost fares for more travelers to destinations in the U.S., Latin America and the Caribbean. Frontier Group Holdings Inc. and Spirit Airlines Inc. also anticipate $1 billion in annual consumer savings and are looking to expand their services with more than 350 aircraft on order.

In addition, Frontier and Spirit are looking to add more jobs. The companies foresee adding 10,000 direct jobs and thousands of additional jobs at their business partners by 2026.

“This transaction is centered around creating an aggressive ultra-low fare competitor to serve our guests even better, expand career opportunities for our team members and increase competitive pressure, resulting in more consumer-friendly fares for the flying public,” Spirit CEO Ted Christie said in a prepared statement.

The carriers may be in for a very close look from antimonopoly regulators. The Biden administration has signaled a tougher line against big corporate mergers. Yet airlines have suffered a devastating stretch during the pandemic despite assistance from the U.S. and are in a weakened position heading into 2022.

Existing Frontier shareholders will own approximately 51.5% and existing Spirit stockholders will own approximately 48.5% of the combined airline. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of the year. It still needs approval from Spirit shareholders.

Spirit shareholders will receive 1.9126 shares of Frontier plus $2.13 in cash for each existing Spirit share they own. This implies a value of $25.83 per Spirit share at Frontier’s closing stock price of $12.39 on Friday.

The combined company is expected to have annual revenues of approximately $5.3 billion, based on last year’s results. Its board will include seven members named by Frontier and five members named by Spirit. Frontier Chair William Franke will serve as chairman of the combined company.

Shares of Frontier, based in Denver, slipped 2.2% before the opening bell Monday. Shares of Spirit, based in Miami, jumped 12.5%.

Philippine Cruise Missiles Deal Signals Pushback Against China

San Francisco — 

Philippines leaders are moving to purchase sophisticated anti-ship cruise missiles in what analysts see as a sign of new resolve to stand up to China in a maritime dispute and to pivot further toward Manila’s traditional ally, the United States.

The Philippines made deals in January to acquire BrahMos missiles from a Russian-Indian joint venture. The move follows Manila’s July 2021 consent to sustain a U.S. visiting forces agreement, which allows for arms sales, intelligence sharing and U.S. troops’ access to Philippine soil for military exercises.

The Philippines is a part of a network of pro-U.S. countries in East Asia, but President Rodrigo Duterte challenged the U.S. alliance in 2016 by pursuing friendly ties with Asian superpower China, which he lauded while criticizing U.S. influence in his country. A series of territorial disputes in the South China Sea have cooled Duterte’s overtures over the past four years.

In this photo taken from video shown at United Nations headquarters, Rodrigo Duterte, president of the Philippines, remotely addresses the 76th session of the U.N. General Assembly in a pre-recorded message, Sept. 21, 2021.

“He doesn’t like slights to his authority, slights to his ego and slights to Philippine sovereignty, and he’s faced that,” said Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia. “And so, I think his legacy in his mind — ‘we stood up to the United States in the beginning and then it didn’t work with China’ — and so he’s punishing them.”

Missile orders

BrahMos Aerospace Private Ltd. announced the signing of its contract with the Philippine Department of National Defense in a terse January 28 press release on its website.

Manila’s state-run Philippine News Agency reported a week previously that the deal was worth $375 million and that two batteries would be available to the Philippine army for coastal defense missions.

Experts say the Philippines’ armed forces, which set out eight years ago to modernize at sea, would likely use the missiles to deter Beijing’s use of coast guard, naval and fishing vessels in the South China Sea west of Luzon Island and south of Hong Kong, experts say.

“In a conflict situation, they would be used to attack vessels at sea, and in the context of the Philippines, it would be more useful in controlling the movement of ships into or out of the South China Sea,” said Jay Batongbacal, international maritime affairs professor at the University of the Philippines in Quezon City.

BrahMos missiles have a 290-kilometer range and are designed to travel about three and a half times faster than the American subsonic Harpoon cruise missile. The Philippines is the first non-Indian buyer of the missile systems, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data indicate.

Old dispute, new chill

Chinese officials point to documents dating back to dynastic times as support for their claim to about 90% of the 3.5 million-square-kilometer South China Sea, while the Philippines rejects China’s claim by citing a United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea. Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam claim all or parts of the sea, which is valued for fisheries, fossil fuel reserves and marine shipping lanes.

Over the past decade, China, as keeper of Asia’s strongest military, has alarmed the other claimants by constructing artificial islands for military use and passing its vessels through disputed tracts of water. The Philippines won a world court arbitration case against China in 2016 over the reach of China’s maritime claims, but China rejected the ruling.

Duterte sought a first-ever Sino-Philippine friendship that same year, as China pledged $24 billion in aid and investment for the impoverished Southeast Asian country. Over the past four years, however, China has allowed its boats to venture near disputed maritime features, and a Chinese vessel sank a Filipino boat in 2019.

Many Filipinos believe the post-2016 uptick in Sino-Philippine relations has not delivered enough aid or investment. The U.S. government represents a more stable ally, some analysts say.

“I do think (Duterte) still recognizes that, practically speaking, the Philippines can’t do it alone,” said Derek Grossman, senior defense analyst with the U.S.-based Rand Corporation research organization.

Washington still “stands by its ally the Philippines,” the U.S. Department of State said in a November statement on Chinese coast guard vessels that used water cannons against Filipino resupply ships in the South China Sea.

Election uncertainty

Duterte must step down from office in June because of term limits. Presidential election front-runner Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, has said he would not seek U.S. help in settling the maritime dispute with China. But most Filipinos still prefer stronger U.S. ties, analysts say, so Marcos might take a tougher line against Beijing, or a stronger stance in favor of Washington, if elected in May.

“If things are stable in the South China Sea, then China won’t be much of an election issue, but, for example, (if) another incident takes place, this will prop up nationalist sentiment here in the Philippines,” said Aaron Rabena, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation in Metro Manila.

China has not formally protested the BrahMos missile deals. Its forces could ultimately “overwhelm” the missiles, Batongbacal said.

At a media Christmas party in December, the Chinese ambassador to Manila, Huang Xilian, sounded an optimistic note regarding overall relations. “As the relationship between China and the Philippines become increasingly closer, some differences have inevitably appeared, but this does not affect our overall relationship,” Huang said.