Russia Fine-Tuning Info Ops as Tensions With Ukraine Rise

Washington — 

Russia’s effort to encircle Ukraine with more than 150,000 troops has been accompanied by a shift in its information operations, including a noted increase in ongoing campaigns targeting audiences in the United States, according to a senior U.S. Homeland Security official.

The onslaught of Kremlin-linked influence operations by itself is not new. U.S. intelligence officials and the Department of Homeland Security have warned for months of sustained Russian efforts to sow discord with disinformation on a range of subjects, from the 2020 U.S. presidential elections to the coronavirus.

But over the past few weeks, as intelligence streamed in that Russian President Vladimir Putin might be closer to launching an invasion into Ukraine, the tone and tenor of the influence campaigns targeting U.S. audiences began to evolve.

There has been “an increase in the promotion of narratives trying to lay the blame for the Ukraine crisis and the potential escalation in that conflict at the feet of the U.S.,” said John Cohen, the senior official performing the duties of the undersecretary of the Office of Intelligence and Analysis at DHS. “Trying to shift blame away from Russia’s efforts.”

Officials also fear that Russian rhetoric about Ukraine, when mixed with information designed to anger and even incite segments of American society, could make the threat landscape in the U.S. that much more dangerous.

“The escalated tensions between Russia and Ukraine have the potential to exacerbate the threat environment here at home, particularly as it relates to the use by Russia of disinformation campaigns and active measure techniques,” Cohen said Tuesday during a virtual forum.

Homeland Security officials earlier this month issued an updated National Terrorism Advisory System bulletin warning that an increasingly volatile, unpredictable and complex threat environment necessitated keeping the U.S. in a heightened state of alert against terror attacks.

The updated bulletin also warned that much of the information environment, including social media, was being targeted by “malign foreign powers” seeking to amplify any and all divisions in American society.

Of the growing number of foreign powers seeking to manipulate the online environment, Russia has been especially active. Former intelligence officials and analysts told VOA that even before the 2020 election, Moscow was finding ways to ingratiate a stable of influence peddlers to U.S. audiences on the far right and the far left.

More recently, an assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence obtained by Yahoo News concluded the Kremlin is providing “indirect and passive support” to U.S. groups on the far right, described by U.S. officials as racially and ethnically motivated violent extremists, or RMVEs.

“We lack indications of Russian Government direct support — such as financing, material support, training or guidance,” the ODNI assessment said. “However, Russian online influence operations amplify politically divisive issues that probably contribute to RMVE radicalization and recruitment.”

In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Feb. 2, 2022, Russian and Belarusian tanks drive during joint military drills at Brestsky firing range, Belarus.

The ODNI report further warned that some Russian paramilitary groups have tried to recruit Western extremists.

“We have not seen a significant amount of plane travel at this point, but it’s obviously something we look at,” DHS’ Cohen said Tuesday, though he warned U.S. officials are trying to fight back.

“We have shared intelligence information with state and locals. We are making sure that we’re doing everything we can to protect key information infrastructures, particularly those having to do with critical infrastructure,” he said. “And we are continuing to think through strategies to counteract disinformation campaigns promoted by Russia.”

Pushing back against Russian disinformation and influence operations can be difficult because “success is measured by volume and relentlessness,” said John Sipher, a 28-year veteran of the CIA who once ran the spy agency’s Russia operations.

“They are no longer trying to push a cohesive narrative,” Sipher told VOA. “(Russia is) just trying to use a firehose to spread lies, disinformation and confusion in an effort to make it impossible to pick out truth from the huge pile of nonsense.”

Russia reiterates that Washington is the one generating tensions and that it will not back down | World

“Washington is the one generating tensions, not Moscow. We are not going to step back and stand firm in response to threats of sanctions” from the United States.

With this message published on the Twitter network, the Russian embassy in the United States responded to a statement from the State Department in which it recalled that it was Russia that invaded Ukraine in 2014 and occupied Crimea.

Iran, Russia Tout Closer Ties Amid Tensions With Europe, US

Iran’s president visited Russia this week on a visit Iranian officials called a “turning point” in their relations, as officials also announced a planned joint naval exercise that includes China for later this week.

The visit by President Ebrahim Raisi to Moscow comes amid rising tensions between Russia and Western countries over Moscow’s troop buildup on Ukraine’s border, broadly seen as preparation for a possible invasion. Russia claims it has no plans to invade.

In a speech Thursday before Russia’s parliament, the Duma, Raisi accused NATO of expanding into “various geographical areas with new coverings that threaten the common interests of independent states.”

Raisi and Russian President Vladimir Putin met at the Kremlin on Wednesday, but despite the red-carpet welcome, there were no substantial country-to-country agreements announced.

“The significance of the trip at the moment is still mostly symbolic,” Alex Vatanka, director of the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program, told VOA. “There’s talk of closer military cooperation. There’s talk of strategic cooperation in the energy sector. We’ve heard this before. Time will show if any tangible deals can be reached.”

In his only tweet about Raisi’s trip to Russia, Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, was cryptic. “The presidents of the two countries agreed on a long-term roadmap,” he wrote, without clarifying what the map was about or whether an agreement was signed.

During Raisi’s travels, Iranian state-run media reported planned joint naval exercises among Iranian, Russian and Chinese forces in the north of the Indian Ocean on Friday. Iran’s armed forces and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will take part in the drills, an Iranian military official said.

Iran became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in September 2021, thanks to strong Russian support.

In this handout photo released by the Russian Federation Press Service, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi gestures after delivering his speech at the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, in Moscow, Jan. 20, 2022.

Uncertainty ahead of nuclear talks

The Iranian president also gave assurances in remarks before Russian officials that his country was not seeking nuclear arms. “We are not looking for a nuclear weapon, and such weapons have no place in our defense strategy,” Raisi told Russian lawmakers.

The United States and its allies accuse Iran of trying to make nuclear weapons and using terrorism to destabilize countries in the Middle East – charges Tehran rejects.

Iranian diplomats are in talks with U.S. and European counterparts to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, which former President Donald Trump pulled out of, calling it “one-sided and unacceptable.”

The talks are at a “decisive moment,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday. The top U.S. diplomat warned that Washington and its allies might change tactics if a deal isn’t reached in the coming weeks.

Speaking in Vienna on Thursday alongside Blinken, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock indicated that European nations had sought to ensure China and Russia also maintained pressure on Iran.

In Moscow, the Iranian president said his country was “serious about reaching an agreement if the other parties are serious about lifting the sanctions effectively and operationally.”

In this photo released by the Russian Federation Press Service, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, left, and Russian State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin talk to each other during their meeting in Moscow, Jan. 20, 2022.

Opportunistic alliance?

Russia and Iran both have critical disagreements with the U.S. on issues ranging from Iran’s nuclear program and alleged backing of terrorist groups in the Middle East to Russia’s security and strategic threats to NATO. The two countries have also cooperated in some areas, such as countering U.S. interests in Syria and Afghanistan.

But on other topics, divides include Iran’s existential threats to Israel and Russia’s official objection to Iran’s proliferation of nuclear arms.

“This is not a matter of two nations which agree on politics or ideology to, somehow, form an alliance. It is basically an opportunistic alliance where both countries would really ignore their differences because of their hostility to the United States,” Anthony Cordesman, an expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told VOA.

It’s unclear to what extent Putin will go with Iran and against the West, experts say.

With the U.S. departure from Afghanistan, which shares a long border with Iran and three Central Asian republics, analysts say Moscow and Tehran will find a common agenda in countering drugs, refugees and terrorist groups like the Islamic State’s Khorasan branch.

“Russia and Iran will probably blame everything that will go wrong in Afghanistan on the U.S. policies. But the reality is now Afghanistan is on its own, and neighboring states like Russia and Iran have every reason to shape the internal dynamics of Afghanistan in a way that their actual interests are not jeopardized,” said Vatanka of the Middle East Institute.

Before their seizure of power in Afghanistan, the Taliban signed an agreement with the U.S. that requires them to deny territory and support to any group that poses threats to the U.S. security and interests.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and RFE/RL.