The United States stands firm behind its commitments to Taiwan and allies in the region, a delegation of former senior U.S. defense and security officials sent by President Joe Biden said on Wednesday.
Collaboration between the United States and Taiwan is stronger and more expansive than ever before, former chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen said during his visit to the democratic island.
Mullen is in Taiwan leading a delegation of former top officials sent by U.S. President Joe Biden. The trip is happening against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is being closely followed in Taiwan.
“The United States will continue to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo and will continue to support a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues, consistent with the wishes and best interests of the people of Taiwan,” Mullen told Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in a meeting broadcast live on Facebook.
“I do hope by being here with you, we can reassure you and your people, as well as our allies and partners in the region, that the United States stands firm behind its commitments.”
Taiwan, claimed by China as its own territory, is on alert in case Beijing tries to use the opportunity to make a move on the island, though the government has reported no unusual Chinese maneuvers.
Beijing has vowed to bring it under Chinese control, by force if necessary, and has increased its military and political pressure against Taiwan to try to force the island to accept China’s sovereignty. Taiwan has vowed to defend itself if attacked.
The delegation will also meet Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng.
Mullen’s delegation marks the first public visit of a group of former officials to Taiwan at Biden’s behest since April 2021, when former U.S. Senator Chris Dodd and former deputy secretaries of state Richard Armitage and James Steinberg traveled there and met with Tsai.
A delegation of former U.S. defense officials is in Taiwan to meet with senior leaders and signal support for the self-governing island, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlights threats to democracies around the world.
The group includes former U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen; former Deputy National Security Advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan Meghan O’Sullivan; former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Michèle Flournoy; and former National Security Council senior directors for Asia Mike Green and Evan Medeiros. The group collectively served under former U.S. Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama.
“The selection of these five individuals sends an important signal about the bipartisan U.S. commitment to Taiwan and its democracy and demonstrates that the Biden administration’s and the United States’ commitment to Taiwan remains rock solid,” a senior Biden administration official in Washington told VOA on background.
The trip coincides with a separate visit by former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who will arrive in Taiwan on Wednesday to speak at the government-affiliated Prospect Foundation. He will also meet with Vice President Lai Ching-te and Foreign Minister Joseph Wu.
Michael Mazza, a non-resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, speculated that Mullen may have come with a message for Taiwan’s senior leadership and would return with a response for White House officials.
While Mullen is a former official, someone of his stature carries more diplomatic weight than a normal diplomatic message, Mazza said.
“The selection of Admiral Mullen to lead this delegation may serve multiple purposes. He is, first, well-poised to deliver important messages regarding defense and, second and related, to assess any defense-related issues or concerns that Taiwan’s leaders may raise,” Mazza told VOA by email.
“There is significant concern in Washington right now that the Overall Defense Concept has been abandoned, or at least downgraded, in Taiwan’s defense strategy. It is likewise unclear what, if anything, has replaced the ODC. I’d be surprised if Mullen did not raise these concerns and seek out details about the direction Taiwan’s defense strategy is taking,” he said.
Under President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan has focused on an “asymmetric defense” strategy to make it an unattractive target to China’s Communist Party, which claims Taiwan as a wayward province and has not ruled out an invasion.
This strategy has focused on making it clear to Beijing that the cost of invading Taiwan would be extremely high even though it has superior military power.
While this policy has been advocated by Tsai, there is ongoing concern in Washington that these policies are not being fully carried out by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, an institution that typically skews conservative in its policymaking.
Wen-ti Sung, a cross-strait relations expert at the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University, said that rather than abandoning its Overall Defense Concept, Taiwan is in the midst of discussing how to rebalance and “future-proof Taiwan’s capacity.”
Sung said analysts in Taiwan have questioned whether the island’s current defense strategy is too focused on deterring an amphibious landing by China’s People’s Liberation Army.
Weapons purchases and training have reflected that strategy, he said, but they may not be of much use after 2035 when the PLA completes its modernization campaign.
“They need to spread eggs in more baskets and shift away from single threat-based planning and move towards a more balanced capability-based approach to force building,” Sung said by phone.
“I think discussion and some [white] papers are discussing that kind of rebalancing,” he said. “I don’t think Taiwan is ditching the ODC, but there are new thoughts being given to ODC and more traditional deterrence.”
Last week, Taiwan’s foreign minister told the McCain Institute for International Leadership that the democracy needs continued U.S. support to defend itself from China, which experts say could have the ability to attack Taiwan as early as 2027.
In the meantime, China has scaled up pressure on Taiwan in other ways. In 2021, China sent more than 1,000 flights into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, a swathe of land and sea around the Taiwan Strait monitored by Taiwan’s military, to send the message that the democracy is “doomed,” according to Wu.
While Taiwan and the United States do not have formal diplomatic relations, the U.S. is the island’s most important ally and has committed to providing Taipei with the means to defend itself under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and other follow-up agreements. These have included major weapons sales, which escalated during the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump and have continued under current President Joe Biden.
Last August, the Biden administration approved $750 million in weapons sales to Taiwan.
Former and sitting U.S. officials regularly visit Taiwan although the opposite is rare. Visitors last year included former U.S. Senator Chris Dodd and former Deputy Secretaries of State Richard Armitage and James Steinberg, while Alex Azar, then-secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, also visited Taiwan in 2020.
As Russia escalates its invasion of Ukraine, the United States is sending a delegation of former defense officials to Taiwan while keeping communication channels open with Russia’s ally, China.
U.S. officials say China’s decision to back Russia amid its military campaign in Ukraine is causing the Beijing government to become “quite uncomfortable.”
Although Beijing’s spokespeople continue to repeat Russia’s claims accusing NATO of provoking the conflict by expanding its membership over the years, U.S. officials insist the relationship is being strained by both the fighting on the ground and the coordinated response by Europe and the United States.
“It is undeniable that right now, China is occupying an awkward nexus in which they’re trying to sustain their deep and fundamental relationship with Russia,” said Kurt Campbell, who is U.S. President Joe Biden’s senior coordinator for Indo-Pacific policy at the White House National Security Council.
“I think they have been concerned by some of the — both the solidarity that everyone has witnessed in the aftermath of the [Russia] invasion — but also by the brutality that is playing out every day with respect to an invasion,” added Campbell on Monday during a webinar hosted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Campbell said the U.S. was hoping China could play a critical role in encouraging Russian President Vladimir Putin to reconsider invading Ukraine but “we believe they [Chinese officials] chose not to weigh in in advance.”
China has refrained from calling Russia’s military actions in Ukraine “an invasion,” saying China “understands Russia’s legitimate concerns on security issues.”
Monday in Beijing, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Wang Wenbin repeated China’s partnership with Russia.
“China and Russia are comprehensive strategic partners of coordination. Our relationship features non-alliance, non-confrontation and non-targeting of any third party,” said Wang during a briefing.
China flexes military amid Russian invasion in Ukraine
In Taiwan, the self-ruled democracy is on high alert after Chinese military planes flew into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) during consecutive days amid Russia’s invasion in Ukraine.
“7 PLA aircraft (Y-8 ASW, J-16*4 and J-10*2) entered #Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on Feb. 28, 2022,” said Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense in a tweet.
The sorties on Monday follow Beijing’s daily dispatch of warplanes into Taiwan’s ADIZ from February 23-27, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.
In a move seen as showing support to Taiwan, Biden is sending a delegation of former senior defense and security officials to Taiwan.
Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michèle A. Flournoy, former White House deputy national security adviser Meghan O’Sullivan and others are visiting Taiwan March 1-2.
The U.S. delegation “sends an important signal about the bipartisan U.S. commitment to Taiwan and its democracy and demonstrates that the Biden Administration’s and the United States’ commitment to Taiwan remains rock solid,” said a senior administration official.
In a separate briefing, Campbell also said the U.S. is not diverting its goal to enhance ties with the Indo-Pacific region.
“You will see over the course of the next several months a determination to sustain high-level engagement in the Indo-Pacific with presidential travel. We will be announcing that ASEAN leaders, for the first time, will be coming to Washington in March shortly.”
Saturday, a U.S. naval vessel sailed through the Taiwan Strait, a move seen as a warning to China not to make any rash moves on Taiwan.
“The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson (DDG 114) is conducting a routine Taiwan Strait transit Feb. 26 through international waters in accordance with international law. The ship is transiting through a corridor in the Strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal State,” said the U.S. 7th fleet in a statement on Twitter.
Analysts are watching China’s next move after it abstained from a U.N. Security Council vote to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“China was close to joining Russia in a veto, but changed position when [the] U.S. watered down [the] resolution text. I think this is a sign of both Chinese influence and its desire to avoid taking hits over Ukraine at the U.N. So it sends a complex bunch of messages (none too awful for Russia),” said International Crisis Group U.N. Director Richard Gowan in a tweet.
Gowan added while China’s abstention is a relief for the U.S., he would not “mistake [it] as a real blow to Russia. Moscow knows China is keeping its head down, and won’t take any serious action against it.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi confirmed during his Saturday call with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock that “when the Security Council discussed the resolution related to the Ukraine issue, China prevented quoting expressions that contain the authorization of the use of force and sanctions.” Wang was referring to U.N. Charter Chapter 7, as China has opposed the authorization of the use of force and sanctions against Russia under Chapter 7.
A U.S. warship sailed through the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Saturday, part of what the U.S. military calls routine activity, which nonetheless irritates China.
The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet said the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson was conducting a “routine” transit through international waters.
“The ship’s transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” 7th Fleet spokesperson Nicholas Lingo said in a statement. “The United States military flies, sails, and operates anywhere international law allows.”
China’s Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a faxed request for comment. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry referred questions to the U.S. Navy.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said the ship sailed in a northerly direction through the Strait, that its forces had monitored its passage and observed nothing out of the ordinary.
Taiwan is currently in a heightened state of alert due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nervous that China may try to take advantage of the situation to make a move on the island though the government has reported no unusual Chinese maneuvers.
Last year, U.S. naval ships transited the Strait roughly monthly. Saturday’s sailing was the first since November.
China claims democratically ruled Taiwan as its own territory and has mounted repeated air force missions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the past two years, provoking anger in Taipei.
Beijing calls Taiwan the most sensitive and important issue in its relations with Washington.
Like most countries, the United States has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan but is its most important international backer and arms supplier.
As Taiwan continues to face a military threat from China, Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said this week the Taiwanese government continues to focus on its “asymmetric defense” capability — including U.S. assistance — to make it an unattractive target, despite its limited military power.
Taiwan’s current strategy is to make certain “China will understand it will pay a very heavy price if it initiates conflict against Taiwan,” Wu said during a virtual event hosted by the McCain Institute for International Leadership at Arizona State University.
Speaking with former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Wu argued for continued U.S. support of Taiwan through arms sales, military exchanges, shared intelligence, and freedom of navigation exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
FILE – Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu holds a speech during his visit to Czech Senate in Prague, Czech Republic, Oct. 27, 2021.
“We want the people here in Taiwan to be able to defend themselves if China is going to launch a war against Taiwan,” Wu said.
Taiwan has lived under the threat of military action by China since China’s Nationalist Party, the Kuomintang fled the mainland after losing the Chinese civil war in 1949. While the conflict has remained largely a stalemate since then — with Beijing continuing to claim Taiwan as a province — an aggressive military modernization campaign by China means it could be able to attack Taiwan as early as 2027, according to the U.S. Defense Department.
Wu said China could have the potential to attack targets other than Taiwan in the future.
“China has made so much investment and have modernized their military capable of not only striking at Taiwan but go beyond the first island chain, so we need to develop our asymmetric warfare so that Taiwan is able to defend itself,” he said, referring to the name of the defensive barrier of Taiwan, Japan, Okinawa, and the northern Philippines.
Similar concerns have led the United States as well as France, Japan, Australia, India, South Korea, the Philippines, and the European Union to become more vocal about the future of Indo-Pacific security in the face of a rising China. Earlier this month, Washington released its latest Indo-Pacific strategy, which called for greater cooperation with regional partners.
Wu said Taiwan must be “very careful” to not provoke China and trigger a conflict. The most recent incident occurred in 1995 and 1996, when China fired missiles toward Taiwan ahead of its first democratic elections. Future triggers could include a formal declaration of independence by Taiwan from China, which is why leaders such as President Tsai Ing-wen are extremely careful when they discuss Taiwan’s political status.
Wu said domestic problems could also force Beijing’s hand if it needed to unite China against a common enemy. “We also need to watch out for this classical theory about authoritarian countries. They like to divert domestic attention by initiating external conflict. If something is happening in China, inside their country, for example, economic slowdown, unemployment, or major disasters, things like that, that might be the time that we need to watch very carefully,” he said.
In the meantime, Taiwan continues to face Chinese efforts to sway public opinion and destroy morale from within Taiwan by convincing civilians “democracy is doomed.” Tactics have included more than 1,000 Chinese People’s Liberation Army air sorties toward Taiwan last year, Wu said, as well as disinformation campaigns and political infiltration.
Wu said these tactics are “below the thresholds of a military conflict” but still require Taiwan and allies such as the United States to keep pushing back.
Events like Wu’s talk at the McCain Institute are part of Taiwan’s greater public relations strategy to remain a central concern for both the U.S. government and the U.S. public, said Kitsch Liao Yen-fan, a cyber and military affairs consultant at the Taiwanese civil society group Doublethink Lab.
Liao said this was a particular concern for Taiwan after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year, as the U.S. public may not want to see its military send troops to another foreign conflict. While the United States is not formally committed to defending Taiwan if it were attacked, under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act it has pledged to help it defend itself.
Whether this would ever extend to sending U.S. personnel to Taiwan in a wartime scenario, however, is still a topic of debate — and a decision that Taipei hopes to influence.
Talks like those by Wu, however, “create sufficient momentum to tip public opinion on Taiwan’s side, and on the political side of the United States to reach a tipping point where the willingness to actually send the military into the next conflict will be reversed again,” said Liao.
For two weeks and more, China’s stance on questions about its politics and policies has been straightforward: It’s the Olympics, and we’re not talking about these things.
That changed at the Beijing organizing committee’s last regularly scheduled daily news conference Thursday, three days before the end of the Games. The persistent and polite refusal to answer such questions gave way to the usual state of affairs at news conferences with Chinese officials — emphatic, calibrated answers about the country’s most sensitive situations.
Taiwan? An indivisible part of China. The Uyghur population of the Xinjiang region? Not being pushed into forced labor. China’s sovereignty? Completely unassailable under international norms.
“What I want to say is that there is only one China in the world,” organizing committee spokesperson Yan Jiarong said, calling it “a solemn position” for China. She referred to other assertions about China’s treatment of Uyghurs and living conditions in the northwestern region of Xinjiang as “based on lies.”
It was only a matter of time before these topics burst at the seams. The run-up to the Games was overshadowed by a diplomatic boycott led by the United States, which centered on China’s human rights record; China was determined to keep the focus only on sports but is also very committed to vigorously defending its stances publicly. In the final regularly scheduled briefing before the Games close on Sunday, Yan and IOC spokesperson Mark Adams were peppered with questions about Taiwan, Xinjiang and the safety of Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai.
Following up on a question about Taiwan’s reported attempt to skip the opening ceremony, Yan asked for extra time to address the status of the self-governing island, which China views as its sovereign territory.
“Mark, could I just make some supplementary remarks?” Yan said, continuing: “Taiwan is an indivisible part of China and this is a well recognized international principle and well recognized in the international community,” she said. “We are always against the idea of politicizing the Olympic Games.”
Adams was immediately questioned by a non-Chinese reporter who suggested that Yan, herself, had “politicized” the Games by raising China’s stance on Taiwan. Adams dodged the question.
“There are views on all sorts of things around the world, but our job is to make sure that the Games take place,” Adams said.
A Games volunteer, a young Chinese woman named Wei Yining, got a question she did not expect when a reporter asked if she knew who Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai was and, further, did she believe Peng was safe.
Peng, once the world’s top-ranked doubles player, three months ago accused a former high-ranking politician of sexual assault. Peng’s comments were immediately scrubbed from China’s censored internet.
“Well, I am sorry,” the young women replied. “I don’t really know that.”
One reporter asked Adams directly about the IOC’s position on the reported existence of “concentration camps” in Xinjiang, and whether China was using forced labor there. Adams suggested the question was not “particularly relevant’ to the briefing, and then went on to praise the power of the Olympics to unite people.
Yan again made sure China’s view was heard.
“I think these questions are very much based on lies,” she said. “Some authorities have already disputed this false information. There is a lot of solid evidence. You are very welcome to refer to all that evidence and the facts.”
A senior U.S. delegation visited Lithuania this week in a show of support for the Baltic state in its growing dispute with China involving Taiwan.
Beijing effectively blocked imports of Lithuanian goods last month after Taiwan was allowed to open a representative office in the capital, Vilnius. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory. The dispute has rapidly escalated into a trade tussle between the West and Beijing.
Jose W. Fernandez, undersecretary for economic growth, energy and the environment, met Lithuanian government ministers in a visit described by the U.S. State Department as showing “continuing strong support for Lithuania in the face of political pressure and economic coercion from the People’s Republic of China.” The two sides discussed the implementation of a $600 million agreement on boosting trade.
Lithuania welcomed the intervention. “We permanently feel U.S. strong political and practical support in our dispute with China over its systemic violations of international trade rules,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a press release.
Taiwan
The dispute began in 2020 when Lithuania’s new government pledged to support what it called “freedom fighters” in Taiwan and criticized Beijing’s human rights record in Hong Kong and Tibet.
In May 2021, Lithuanian lawmakers approved a resolution that described China’s treatment of its Uyghur minority as “genocide.” China has rejected such accusations.
In November of last year, Taiwan officially opened the representative office in Vilnius. Its director, Eric Huang, said the goal was the “strengthening of [the] bilateral relationship comprehensively between Taiwan and Lithuania.”
Lithuania said the opening did not affect its policy toward China or imply any official recognition of Taiwan as independent from Beijing. The move, however, stoked fury in Beijing.
“From the perspective of Beijing, it’s crossing a line, a real red line on how they approach Taiwan. And this is what led later to Beijing downgrading its embassy in Lithuania,” Grzegorz Stec of the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies said in a recent interview with VOA.
Import blockade
In December, China effectively blocked Lithuanian imports by delisting it as a country of origin, meaning goods can’t clear Chinese customs, while pressing multinational businesses to sever ties with the Baltic country.
“And that works not only in some cases for goods that are produced in Lithuania but also goods that include in their supply chain components produced in Lithuania. Also, the European exports that have been transited through Lithuanian ports, they have also been affected,” Stec said.
FILE – EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis speaks during a press conference in Brussels, on Dec. 7, 2021.
EU challenge
The European Union accuses China of threatening the integrity of its single market and has launched a challenge at the World Trade Organization.
“We are stepping forward to defend the EU’s rights,” EU Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters January 27.
“Since December 1, Chinese customs are banning Lithuanian imports from the Chinese market. … Chinese companies are canceling orders from Lithuania. China is also cutting its exports to Lithuania. Moreover, China is putting pressure on international companies to abandon the use of Lithuanian components in their production,” Dombrovskis said.
It likely will take years for the WTO challenge to be resolved. In the meantime, the EU is working on legal instruments to counter coercive practices.
“This could include really targeting or restricting access for companies from a specific country from the single market. Right now, we don’t really have a clear instrument for doing that,” Stec told VOA.
Lithuanian lifeline
The Taiwan government has offered Lithuania a $1 billion credit program and a separate $200 million fund to boost trade. Lithuania has donated hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 vaccines to Taiwan.
The United States has also stepped in to make up the shortfall caused by China’s blockade. The U.S. Export-Import Bank signed a $600 million export credit agreement with Lithuania, focusing on manufacturing, business services and renewable energy.
But it’s not just about money, Stec said. “Symbolic involvement [by the U.S.] of course supports Lithuania by showing that it’s not isolated in its moves. At the same time, it also makes it harder to unravel the situation because it once again puts it in the spotlight.”
U.S. officials also held talks in Brussels on joint measures to tackle economic coercion.
FILE – Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian gestures as he speaks during a daily briefing at his ministry in Beijing, Feb. 24, 2020.
‘Betrayal’
China, meanwhile, accuses Lithuania of “betrayal.”
“The issue between China and Lithuania is a bilateral issue between China and Lithuania, not between China and Europe. We urge Lithuania to correct its mistakes immediately, and not act as a pawn of Taiwan independence separatist and anti-China forces. We also remind the EU to distinguish right from wrong and be alert to Lithuania’s attempts to hijack China-EU relations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told reporters January 27.
A U.S. delegation visited Lithuania this week to show support for the Baltic state in its growing dispute with China over Taiwan. Beijing has blocked imports of Lithuanian goods, and as Henry Ridgwell reports, it has escalated into a trade tussle. Producer: Mary Cieslak. Camera: Henry Ridgwell.
In subtropical Taiwan, the closest pile of icy snow is a serving of bàobīng, a sweet fruity dessert.
Yet when the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games open Friday, four Taiwanese athletes will compete under a name — Chinese Taipei — that is rarely used and without displaying their red flag with a white sun on a blue rectangle in one corner.
Skiers Lee Wen-yi and Ho Ping-jui will compete in the women’s and men’s slalom, respectively. Lin Sin-rong will rocket downhill in the women’s single luge. And, like other speedskaters, Huang Yu-ting, 33, will participate certain of the Dutch team’s dominance.
“When I’m meeting people, I’ll tell them I’m from Taiwan, because if you tell people you’re from Chinese Taipei, nobody knows where you’re from, you can’t find it on Google,” Lee said of her homeland.
There are almost no real training facilities for winter sports on the self-governing island and the COVID-19 pandemic has kept Taiwan’s athletes from training abroad. They’ve kept in shape using alternative training methods as they prepare for the Olympics.
Luger Lin, 23, has powered along the nation’s mountain highways on in-line skates. She trains on one of Taiwan’s ice rinks to perfect the launch sequence needed to start the luge. With spiked gloves, she works the ice as recreational skaters glide by.
“On the ice rink, I will just practice starts by [paddling] the ice with my gloves over and over, it’s quite repetitive,” she told VOA Mandarin last week.
Alpine skier Ho, 24, has trained in snow-blessed Austria since his middle school days. For these Games, however, he’s been bicycling and hitting the gym to maintain the lung capacity and muscles his event demands.
“We almost escaped back to Taiwan during early 2020 before a lockdown in Europe, because at that time, people’s understanding was that the COVID-19 virus would severely damage your lungs,” Ho, who now lives in Taipei, told VOA Mandarin.
“For an athlete, an injury like that will end your career,” he said.
Lee, 19, faces a similar challenge. The product of a skiing family, Lee’s father, Lee Yong-de, was one of Taiwan’s few professional skiers who reigned in the 1980s. He now owns an indoor ski training center, where his daughter maintains her competitive form using two machines that simulate the alpine tracks of the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics in Russia and the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics in South Korea.
Ho Ping-jui, a skier from Taiwan. (Courtesy: Ho Ping-jui)
“These machines helped me tremendously,” Lee said. “When I went to the U.S. for training in August 2021, it’s like I’ve never left the tracks after a year and a half living in Taiwan, where you see zero snow.”
Lee believes she’s benefitted from the machines. “I think the machines have low tolerance for error, so I actually have to perfect my movement to finish the simulated tracks on them.”
But she needed more to qualify for the Games, so Lee and her father crisscrossed Europe last autumn so she could compete in qualifying events in Lithuania, Bosnia and Cyprus until December.
“I did a total of 33 races in less than two months, one race per 1.4 days,” Lee told VOA Mandarin.
During their training trip, her father, who is also her coach, maintained close contact with the Chinese Taipei Ski Association, which is responsible for entering athletes for the Games.
“All the hard work didn’t go in vain, and now I have a spot in this year’s Olympic Games,” Lee added.
While Beijing operates sports-centered boarding schools that are partially state-funded to train China’s rising Olympians, Taiwanese athletes usually rely on family funding for training until they start to participate in international events. At that point, the Taiwan Sports Administration and commercial sponsorships begin to offset the cost of training.
But for athletes who are training for winter sports that do not bring in tourist dollars or other revenue to the subtropical island, money is as hard to find as snow.
Taiwan will not send any government officials to the Beijing Winter Olympics this year, and the Taiwan Sports Administration said Jan. 28 that its delegation would not take part in the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics “due to tense epidemiological situation and other factors.”
Lin Sin-rong, a sled runner from Taiwan. (Courtesy: Lin Sin-rong)
China considers Taiwan a breakaway province, and a Taiwanese official told Reuters that self-governing Taiwan feared Beijing could use the events to assert its jurisdiction over the island by putting Taiwanese athletes beside those from Hong Kong, which is officially a special administrative region of China.
The Taiwanese team members who spoke to VOA Mandarin said they would refrain from commenting on political topics.
“I asked my athletes to focus on the Games and stay out of politics,” said Lee Yong-de, who coaches his daughter Lee Wen-yi, because “separating the two makes everyone happy.”
Some material for this report came from The Associated Press.
Many in Taiwan are carefully watching the U.S. response to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, seeing parallels to Taipei’s embattled relationship with China, which tests Taiwan’s air defenses almost daily.
Asked how Taiwan would react if the U.S. government does little or nothing to help Ukraine in response to a Russian attack, pro-Taiwan activist Ken Wu said he believes the Taiwanese would “feel definitely disheartened, and also they’ll be disappointed, and they’ll feel that if China invades Taiwan, then that’s exactly how the U.S. will treat Taiwan.”
Wu is vice president of the Los Angeles chapter of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs, which lobbies Congress for pro-Taiwan action.
Two threats, three superpowers
Russia has deployed hundreds of tanks, howitzers and self-propelled artillery along with tens of thousands of troops near its land border with Ukraine, a former Soviet republic. Russia annexed Crimea, once a part of Ukraine, in 2014.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NBC’s “Meet the Press” show January 23 that the United States is “preparing massive consequences for Russia if it invades Ukraine again.”
The U.S. pullout from Afghanistan in August, ushering in Taliban rule, raised questions in Taiwan and elsewhere around Asia about Washington’s resolve.
“If the U.S. were to do anything in Ukraine, it would be I guess viewed as an act of redemption, but still I think after Afghanistan, it’s very difficult for countries around the world to be fully dependent on the U.S.,” said Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
China claims sovereignty over Taiwan, although the two sides have been separately ruled since Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists lost the Chinese civil war to Mao Zedong’s Communists and retreated to the island.
Beijing has not renounced the use of force if needed to bring Taiwan under its flag. While the U.S. does not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, Washington sells arms to Taiwan, maintains aircraft carriers in the region and has in place the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which says the United States maintains the capacity “to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.”
Chinese state-run Xinhua news agency recently described Taiwan’s independence efforts as doomed to fail. The report in January quoted Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, saying the Taiwanese leadership was “creating an illusion of the reliability of the United States regarding the situation in the Taiwan Strait.” Beijing has discouraged the U.S. from encouraging Taiwan’s independence.
FILE – A Taiwanese F-16 fighter jet flies next to a Chinese H-6 bomber, top, in Taiwan’s air defense zone, in this handout photo taken and released Feb. 10, 2020, by Taiwan’s Defense Ministry.
Views from Taipei
Leaders in Taiwan are already drawing parallels to Ukraine.
“Taiwan has faced the long-term military threat of China and deeply recognizes that rising tensions could trigger war,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Taipei said in a January 27 press statement. “Our government urges all sides to respect Ukraine’s sovereign independence and territorial integrity and oppose one-sided changes to the status quo.”
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen told her National Security Council a day later to form a task force that would follow developments in Ukraine.
Close to 60% of Taiwan’s rank and file anticipate help from the United States if attacked by China, Taipei-based CommonWealth Magazinefound in a January 12 survey.
“If the U.S. did not defend Ukraine in an attack from Russia this time, I think Taiwanese including me should reassess the U.S. determination on militarily helping Taiwan when it comes to the invasion of China,” said Wang Wei-chieh, a university student and co-founder of the FBC2E International Affairs Facebook page.
In that scenario, Wang said, “Taiwanese should understand that the recent U.S. administration and society are not willing to sacrifice their troops for foreign countries.”
U.S. policymakers ultimately see Taiwan as more crucial to American interests than Ukraine or Afghanistan, says one scholar.
“If Taiwan falls, then the whole of Asia will fall, Korea and Japan and everywhere,” said Shane Lee, a retired political science professor from Chang Jung Christian University in Taiwan.
Washington sees Taiwan as a core Asia Pacific ally that can help contain the expansion of China, according to James Lee, a researcher with the UC San Diego Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation.
“If Taiwan were to be taken over and its democracy extinguished, that would be a disaster for the global spread of democratic values,” he said in an interview.
Fabrizio Bozzato, senior research fellow at the Tokyo-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s Ocean Policy Research Institute, said Taiwan would have nowhere else to look for superpower support if the United States showed weakness on Ukraine.
“In case the U.S. hesitates or declines to take swift action, even military action to counter Russia in Ukraine, there will be a lot of concern in Taipei because it will be an omen of Washington’s indecision, unwillingness, hesitancy to protect Taiwan from an attack or an invasion from China,” Bozzato said.
Taiwanese Vice President William Lai will attend the inauguration of the first female president of Honduras, Xiomara Castro, on Thursday in a move to shore up the relationship between Taipei and Honduras, one of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic allies.
Honduras is one of only 14 countries that maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Last month, its neighboring country, Nicaragua, severed ties with Taiwan and re-established relations with Beijing, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province that someday will be reunified with the mainland. Taipei views itself as a self-governing state.
Speaking at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport before his departure, Lai said he would take medical supplies to help combat the COVID-19 pandemic in Honduras. According to Reuters, since 2006 Taiwan has loaned Honduras around $205 million and given another $27 million in donations.
During a layover in Los Angeles on Tuesday, he held an online meeting with U.S. lawmakers to discuss bilateral trade relations and the threats posed by China, according to the Taipei Times.
In this photo released by the Taiwan Presidential Office, Taiwan Vice President William Lai waves to supporters during a stopover in Los Angeles, Jan. 25, 2022. Lai is leading a Taiwanese delegation to Honduras for the inauguration of President-elect Xiomara Castro Jan. 27-28.
“Honduras is an important ally of Taiwan in Central America,” he said Tuesday. “On this trip, we will bring a variety of Taiwan-made disease prevention equipment to give to the people of Honduras, taking concrete action to demonstrate our strong support for the Taiwan-Honduras alliance and the new Honduran administration on the first day of President Castro’s term.” Less than 50% of the Honduran population is fully vaccinated, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.
During her campaign, Castro, a member of the left-wing Liberty and Refoundation Party (Libre), said she would re-establish diplomatic relations with China if elected, according to the Taiwan News. After a November trip by high-level officials from the U.S. State Department, who expressed the hope that Honduras would maintain its relationship with Taiwan, Castro backtracked and signaled support for Taiwan by retweeting congratulations from its president, Tsai Ing-wen.
US ties valued
Gerardo Torres, Libre Party secretary of international relations, said after Castro was elected on November 28 that the incoming administration would not sever ties with Taipei. “Nobody in the party wants to enter government distancing ourselves from the United States,” he said on December 10, according to the Taipei Times.
I believe that we have a responsibility to [Taiwan] as someone with whom we have had a good relationship,” said Rodolfo Pastor, a foreign policy adviser to Castro, according to the website Diálogo Chino.
“But I do believe that we also have a responsibility to our own population to be realistic, to be pragmatic and to understand that mainland China today plays a determining role that we cannot let go unnoticed,” Pastor said.
Analysts told VOA Mandarin that Castro was unlikely to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan after the U.S. intervention.
“It’s not really about what we have done to consolidate the bilateral relationship with Honduras, it’s more about the U.S. factor,” Ko Yu-Chih, an associate professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei, told VOA Mandarin in a phone interview.
FILE – In this photo released by the Taiwan Presidential Office, outgoing Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, left, exchanges gifts with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen during a meeting in Taipei, Taiwan, Nov. 13, 2021.
Chang Kuang-Chiu, an associate professor at Chihlee University of Technology in Taipei, agreed. He said that because the U.S. is the largest trade partner of Honduras, and the U.S. military maintains the Soto Cano Air Base in the Central American country, “Honduras will likely make their relations with the U.S. as a priority.”
Meeting possible?
Meanwhile, there was speculation that Lai will meet unofficially with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, who also is attending the inauguration.
A White House official on Wednesday told VOA Mandarin that “there are no plans for her [Harris] to meet with VP Lai while in Honduras.”
While there is no official diplomatic relationship between the United States and Taiwan, informal meetings between U.S. officials and Taiwan leaders on stopovers in the U.S. have become an institutionalized part of bilateral relations.
Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for China’s State Council Office on Taiwan Affairs, said on Wednesday at a daily briefing that China strongly opposed any form of official contact between Taipei and Washington.
“The DPP [Democratic Progressive Party] authorities are using the so-called ‘transit trip’ to seek official contact with the United States and opportunities for independence,” she said. “No matter what trick they use, it will not change the fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is a part of China.”
Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told VOA Mandarin that observers who follow relations between China and Taiwan are keeping an eye on whether Harris and Lai will have any meaningful interaction on the margins of the inauguration, and if so, what messages are shared.
“Traditionally, international inaugurations, funerals and multilateral events, such as APEC [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation] conferences, are the venues where senior U.S. and Taiwan officials have opportunities to be in direct, personal contact. If the U.S. has a message it would like to convey to VP Lai, this inauguration presents a unique opportunity to do so,” he told VOA Mandarin in an email.
Avoiding ‘great disturbance’
Ko, of the National Chengchi University, argued that it’s possible the two leaders might have an opportunity to exchange a few words, but that the U.S. was unlikely to arrange a talk on the sidelines because it would anger China.
“If there is such an arrangement, it will cause a great disturbance in Sino-U.S. relations, which is also not beneficial for the stability of Taiwan,” she said. “The Biden administration is now dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic at home and Ukraine crisis abroad. Taiwan is not really a priority for the U.S. at this time.”
Hass, of Brookings, said Lai’s layovers in the U.S. follow long-standing American policy in consideration for the safety, comfort, convenience and dignity of Taiwanese officials.
“It reflects the Biden administration’s efforts to maintain a steady, principled approach to its Taiwan policy,” he said. “I do not expect the transit to deviate in any significant way from established practice.”
A Slovenian business group has said its members are facing a Chinese backlash days after Prime Minister Janez Jansa publicly discussed his hopes for closer ties with Taiwan during an interview. It marks the latest case of China refusing to tolerate dissent on the issue of Taiwan’s autonomy.
On January 17, Jansa told Indian media that he hoped Taiwan and Slovenia could open mutual representative offices. He also praised Taiwan’s COVID-19 response and said Taiwan should determine its relationship with China independently. Opening offices in Taiwan would bring Slovenia in line with the rest of the European Union, as it is one of only a handful of countries — including Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Malta, and Romania — without a Taiwanese mission.
Swift criticism against Jansa came from the Chinese government describing his remarks as “dangerous.” China considers Taiwan a province and treats any discussion of its disputed political status as taboo.
Moreover, within days of the interview, the Slovenian-Chinese Business Council said Chinese partners were already “terminating contracts and exiting the agreed investments,” according to the Slovenian Press Agency. The business group and its parent organization, the CCIS- Ljubljana Chamber of Commerce and Industry, did not immediately respond to VOA’s email inquiries.
The statement has also drawn fire both from Slovenia’s opposition and businesses with links to China. In an email response to VOA, Sasa Istenic, the director of the Taiwan Study Center at the University of Ljubljana, said his remarks “were his personal position not in tune with the National Assembly and could severely harm Slovenia’s economic cooperation with China.”
Business groups in Slovenia fear they could suffer the same fate as Lithuania, which is now under a Chinese trade embargo in retaliation for pursuing closer ties with Taiwan, Istenic said.
“The Chinese market remains important for Slovenian companies and [the] Slovenian government has certainly been paying attention to China’s retaliation measures directed toward Lithuania,” Istenic said. “We have yet to see how far China is willing to go in preventing the EU member states from upgrading their relationships with Taiwan.”
The EU maintains the “One China Policy” which recognizes Taiwan as part of the Chinese nation, and has traditionally had a less tumultuous relationship with Beijing than has the United States. But dissent is growing within the EU and some countries in Central and Eastern Europe have also found that promises of Chinese investment have not panned out as previously hoped, according to a 2021 report by the Central and Eastern Europe Center for Asian Studies.
China’s growing strength in the Asia-Pacific region has also alarmed both the EU and NATO. The COVID-19 pandemic, combined with Beijing’s human rights violations in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Tibet, have raised questions about its suitability as a close partner.
These concerns have given Taiwan a wedge to improve its relationship with some countries in Europe such as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and, most notably, Lithuania.
Lithuania and Taiwan have grown closer during the pandemic, swapping donations of vaccines and emergency protective gear. But, in April, Lithuania exited the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries trade initiative, a group formed in 2012 to improve trade and investment and known colloquially as the “16+1.”
In November, Taiwan opened a controversially named “Taiwan representative office” in Lithuania. The office angered Beijing as it broke with the tradition of Taiwan using more politically neutral names like “Taipei Economic and Cultural Office” or “Taipei Representative Office” that did not suggest it was an independent political entity.
Aware of the economic cost of its closer ties, Taiwan has worked to offset some of the newfound economic pressure on Lithuania by pledging a combined $1.2 billion in investment across several sectors including industries like semiconductors, biotechnology and lasers.
“[This] investment is meant to shape Taiwan’s image as a reliable partner and viable democratic alternative to China, so there is both a financial and a political dimension to these financial proposals for investment,” said Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, postdoctoral researcher in Taiwan and former political adviser in the European Parliament, over email.
Access to Taiwan’s advanced technology sector could also be an attractive pull for other European countries, including Slovenia, whose automotive manufacturing and metallurgical industries rely on industrial robots.
Una Aleksandra Berzina-Cerenkova, a China scholar and head of the Asia program at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, said Slovenia’s plan to potentially upgrade ties with Taiwan is a sign that Europe has not lost interest in democracy despite coercive measures from Beijing.
“It seemed that there was a bit of a loss of momentum when the Lithuania example was not being followed by others in terms of withdrawing from the 16+1 and then turning towards Taiwan,” said Berzina-Cerenkova by phone.
“But we actually see that Lithuania is leading … against the backdrop of attracting all the heat to itself. The other Central and Eastern European countries are actually also exploring opportunities, and trying to ride this train of momentum in their relations with Taiwan, because Taiwan, of course, is an interesting partner.”
Some sectors in Slovenia could have a lot more to lose, however, than Lithuania. While cumulative Chinese investment in Lithuania was just 82 million euros in 2020, according to the Central and Eastern Europe Center for Asian Studies, investment in Slovenia was valued at a far greater 1.5 billion euros over the same period. Much of that investment is represented by a single acquisition of a video game developer, the report said.
Other countries in the EU may need more support to weather the Chinese economic backlash if they choose to strengthen ties with Taiwan. So far, said Ferenczy, that support has taken the form of statements of support and resolutions in the EU Parliament, but she said more is needed.
“The EU’s toolbox is limited. It is in the process of drafting its anti-coercion instrument designed to reinforce its resilience. It will be key to ensure the instrument works effectively in order to make a difference in terms of pushing back against China’s coercion,” Ferenczy said. “So, whether Brussels will stand with Lithuania and jointly push back against such messaging all the way, is key for the EU’s credibility and its ambition to be able to defend its interests.”
More than 50 Chinese aircraft have flown into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in recent days, marking the sharpest escalation in military sorties since the year began.
Sunday saw a record 39 flights enter the ADIZ, followed by 13 more on Monday, the government in Taiwan said. The ADIZ is an area of land and sea tracked by Taiwan’s military, including the Taiwan Strait and eastern China.
Taipei responded to the incursions by scrambling several of its fighters to confront the Chinese warplanes, and the military tracked them on its air defense radar systems.
There was no immediate comment from Beijing on the incursion.
China typically sends between one and five each aircraft each day in the direction of Taiwan each day, according to public data shared by Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense, but numbers can fluctuate depending on tensions in the Strait of Taiwan and other political events.
Sunday’s flights by the People’s Liberation Army followed a joint freedom of navigation exercise between the US and Japan in the Philippine Sea, which included the aircraft carriers USS Carl Vinson and USS Abraham Lincoln.
“The incursions into the ADIZ in the past two days are likely related to the U.S.-Japan military exercises that took place last week. I think the Chinese are increasingly worried about U.S. military operations with allies in the region, and less worried about Taiwan’s actions,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Daily PLA flights toward Taiwan escalated to more than 940 last year, according to the MOD, including a record 56 in a single day in October. The incident coincided with the 100th anniversary of China’s Communist Party, which has long viewed democratic Taiwan as a province that it hopes to take through peaceful or military means.
Flights into Taiwan’s ADIZ do not signify immediate military action by the PLA but are regarded as one of China’s “grey zone” tactics to reduce morale in Taiwan while sending a signal to its allies like Japan and the U.S. that it is a formidable force.
“Above all, I see the Chinese try to send a statement to Washington that they have the capability to counter all U.S. warships close to the Chinese ports,” said Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
Su told VOA that the volume of flights by the PLA is only one area of concern for Taiwan and its allies. Just as troubling, he said, will be the rollout of China’s new and more powerful WS10 engine in its stealth fighter jets as well as its expanding nuclear arsenal and naval capability in the coming years.
The combined effect will transform the PLA from a “green water navy,” which must stay near ports or coastline, into an ocean-going “blue water navy” that can travel hundreds of nautical miles from shore – a potential threat to countries beyond Asia, he said.
“It’s not only Taiwan that is threatened by Beijing,” Su said. “Beijing’s sea power right now in 2022 is a so-called ‘green water navy,’ however, they will get more aircraft carriers. My personal view is that the PLA navy will become a ‘blue water navy’ by 2025… because its aircraft carriers will be in service and it can start expanding its air power beyond the first island chain.”
China’s growing naval and military power has brought renewed attention to Taiwan, which was once called an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” by U.S. General Douglas McArthur due to its strategic position between continental Asia and the Pacific Ocean.
It also plays a major role in the U.S. “first island chain” defense strategy, which incorporates Japan, parts of the Philippines and Malaysia, as well as Japan’s southern Ryukyu islands into a shield to keep China out of the Pacific.
The Financial Times reported on Sunday, however, that China has maintained an unprecedented military presence on the east side of the Ryukyus and Taiwan for the past six months.
“Last year more Chinese navy vessels and aircraft started operating east of Taiwan. Prior to that they were deployed primarily on the west side. As the FT noted, the PLA is operating regularly between the Nansei Islands and the east of Taiwan.” Tokyo refers to the Ryukyu chain as the Nansei islands.
A range of actors including NATO and the European Union, has expressed concern over the past year about China’s growing reach across the Indo-Pacific and its ability to control the Taiwan Strait, a globally important 177-kilometer waterway between mainland Asia and Taiwan. Concern is especially high in Japan, which relies on imports to meet 90% of its energy needs.
China has already expanded its regional footprint through island building in the South China Sea, as well as an extensive military modernization program that has upgraded the size and power of its armed forces.
Some information for this story came from The Associated Press and Reuters.
Analysts increasingly fear that Beijing’s national security law, initially aimed at quelling dissent in Hong Kong, may be used to target people of any nationality or ethnicity who offend Chinese leaders.
The law took effect in June 2020 after a year of sometimes violent Hong Kong pro-democracy protests against the government. The measure prohibits acts of “separatism, subversion, terrorism, and colluding with foreign forces.”
At least 117 people have been arrested and 60 charged in the former British colony and world financial center in the 13 months since the law took effect.
Violations carry a sentence of up to life in prison.
But experts say the law’s open-ended wording, along with the Chinese government’s wider ambitions, leaves open the possibility that it will be used against anyone with known anti-China or pro-Hong Kong independence sentiments who sets foot in a Chinese territory such as Hong Kong or the former Portuguese colony of Macao.
“As long as China can execute their jurisdiction within Chinese territory, Hong Kong and Macao, people who violate (the) national security law could be extradited to China for the trial, even if just transferring at Chinese airports,” said Chen Yi-fan, assistant professor of diplomacy and international relations at Tamkang University near Taipei.
Taiwanese scholar under fire
Wu Rwei-ren, a research fellow at Taipei-based Academia Sinica, last year became the first Taiwanese person to be accused of breaking the law. A Beijing government-backed media outlet, Takungpao, called out the 60-year-old scholar over an article advocating for Hong Kong independence.
University officials could not be reached for comment.
People in Taiwan will be particularly suspected as time goes on, analysts say.
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory despite the island’s sometimes defiant self-rule of 80 years and has not ruled out using force to reunite it with the mainland.
Democratic Taiwan has an independent media scene and according to a National Chengchi University Election Study Center survey, more than half of Taiwan’s residents want to keep the status quo indefinitely or decide later on the question of unification with China.
Beijing regularly flies military planes into Taiwan’s airspace.
“Usually moves like these are meant to send a message,” said Sean Su, an independent political analyst in Taiwan. “It could be used as sort of a weapon in order to try to intimidate people in Taiwan, but I think the after effect, I think is going to be negative.”
Broad language
Wording of the law covers residents of Hong Kong as well as people who have never visited, according to New York-based advocacy group Amnesty International.
Amnesty said in July 2020 that anyone on Earth, “regardless of nationality or location, can technically be deemed to have violated this law and face arrest and prosecution if they are in a Chinese jurisdiction, even for transit.”
China says its Hong Kong policy is aimed at protecting the territory’s stability and legal system. “Anti-China forces who seek to destabilize Hong Kong must be resolutely excluded” from any positions of power in Hong Kong, said Xia Baolong, head of the State Council’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office.
Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office, attends the opening session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China on March 4, 2021.
Hong Kong residents abroad
Hong Kong native Joey Siu, who works in Washington, assumed she would be arrested “immediately” if she showed at the airport in the former British colony. She hasn’t been back to Hong Kong since the law took effect. Siu works for the UK-based human rights group Hong Kong Watch, organizing protests and rallies while doing international advocacy work.
“Since the law was implemented in 2020, I have felt that I am no longer safe in Hong Kong, because I figured that I was being followed by people who I don’t know if they are security guards or they are Hong Kong police officers, so I felt like my personal safety is no longer guaranteed in Hong Kong and obviously my international advocacy effort is going to lead me to being charged under the name of colluding with foreign forces,” Siu told VOA.
At least four other Hong Kong activists are now staying in the United States and Europe for the same reason, she said.
Siu says writing about dissent will also lead to arrest, although the law lays down no “solid red line” about what’s criminal. The law may extend as well to people who support the political causes of disenchanted Tibetans and Uyghurs, two Chinese ethnic minority groups that have clashed with Beijing’s objectives, she said.
Protesters from Hong Kong in Taiwan and local supporters protest the recent arrests at a news outlet (Stand News) in Hong Kong outside the Bank of China in Taipei, Taiwan, Dec. 30, 2021.
Wider reach?
China has extradition treaties with 37 countries and uses them. The government in Beijing has requested the extradition of ethnic Uyghurs in Malaysia – a request that was denied – for example, according to the Washington-based Center for Advanced China Research.
An offender of the national security law who is based in a China-sympathetic country such as Cambodia would face high odds of extradition, said Stephen Nagy, senior associate professor of politics and international studies at International Christian University in Tokyo.
Individuals who use Mandarin or Cantonese to spread their ideas counter to the Communist Party “narrative” are more likely to be targeted, Nagy said.
“Retroactively charging an (overseas-based) Hong Kong (native), or a Taiwanese scholar, or actions they may have done is very worrisome because it’s an extension of domestic law, and it’s not recognizing the various identities that exist in the Chinese, greater China sphere,” he said.
For this reason, Nagy says, foreign governments are warning their citizens to avoid visiting China, including Hong Kong. The U.S. Department of State, for example, urges U.S. citizens to “reconsider” travel to Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland because of “arbitrary enforcement of local laws.”
